Bet on high-scoring Game 6

The Mavericks’ offense looks back on track after a 123-93 road win in Game 5 against the Clippers.

Dallas can now clinch the series with a win at home on Friday night.

Luka Doncic led all scorers with 35 points in the previous meeting, and his performance should be worrying for a Clippers team looking to stave off elimination.

The Mavericks are a relatively significant favorite, laying eight points after opening at -7.5. But while I like their chances of winning this series in six games, this price feels a bit steep.

As a result, I prefer to pivot to the total, where we could have an even bigger edge.

Clippers vs. Mavs odds

Odds via Caesars

Clippers analysis

With the series tied at two games apiece heading into Game 5, the Clippers should’ve fancied their chances of playing at home.

However, they performed terribly in front of their fans, shooting 37.9% (33-of-87) from the floor and 25.7% (9-of-35) from beyond the arc.

It was another disappearing act by Clippers point guard James Harden, who finished with just seven points on 2-of-12 shooting.

Harden now holds the ignominious record for most playoff games (11) with a field goal percentage under 20% on 10 or more attempts.

His teammate Paul George was only marginally better, shooting 30.8% (4-of-13) from the floor.

Given those paltry numbers, it’s almost inconceivable to expect another poor performance from two of the Clippers’ best players.

Clippers fans will certainly hope that a bounce-back effort is in the cards for Game 6.

» READ MORE: Bet the Cavaliers to advance to the second round in Game 6 matchup with the Magic in Orlando

Mavericks analysis

Following a Game 4 loss in which Kyrie Irving led the Mavericks with 40 points, Doncic felt he didn’t do enough to help his teammate carry the load.

“I feel like I’m letting him down, so I got to be there,” Doncic told reporters after the game. “I got to help him more. He’s giving everything he has and he’s been amazing for us the whole series.”

Although Doncic shot 41.7% from the floor compared to 56% from Irving, he did finish the game with a triple-double (29-10-10).

However, Doncic didn’t mention that he’d been playing hurt with a sprained right knee.

He was questionable in Game 5 but still had one of his better games, shooting 53.8%.

That knee injury doesn’t appear to be a problem moving forward, as the Mavericks no longer list Doncic on their injury report.

If Doncic is closer to 100%, the Clippers will have difficulty slowing him down. Let’s not forget that we’re talking about the 2023-24 regular season scoring champion (33.9 points).

Clippers vs. Mavericks pick

I’ll fully acknowledge that I was on the wrong side with the Clippers in Game 5. My thought process was that the Los Angeles offense would be much more free-flowing without worrying about catering to an injured Kawhi Leonard (knee).

Los Angeles won both games that Leonard sat out, punishing Dallas from beyond the arc with 36 3-pointers.

The Mavericks have struggled with their perimeter defense all season, ranking 20th in 3-pointers allowed (13.1 per game) and opponent 3-point percentage (37.5%).

Moreover, part of the Clippers’ strategy was to use Harden to target Doncic’s defensive vulnerabilities on the perimeter.

Unfortunately, the Clippers shot the deep ball poorly, and perhaps Doncic’s ailing knee was already starting to feel better.

The first three games in this series felt similar to two heavyweight boxers trying to feel each other out in the early rounds. With five games already in the books, these teams have a clearer idea of ​​each other’s strengths and weaknesses.

Both teams finished the regular season ranked in the top 10 of offensive efficiency. The 3-point shot played a significant role in deciding the winner in the last two meetings, and I expect that trend to continue in Game 6.

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