In the past 7 days, there has been a slight discounting of fuel. On average, a liter of gasoline became cheaper by 12 hals to 38.94 K, and for the first time since the beginning of August, its price broke the 39 K level. Diesel also became cheaper – its average price fell by 11 hals to 39.44 K per liter. Diesel is thus the cheapest since the beginning of the year. In the following days, the discounting of fuel should continue, and it could even increase. Gradually, a correction in the oil market could be reflected in the prices. She practically handed it over to the premium price yesterday – a barrel of Brent oil fell below 86 dollars, before the price was 84 dollars on the stock exchange. Compared to the peak in November, the price of oil fell by 9 dollars. Fears of a conflict in the Middle East have also outweighed concerns and the health of the global economy. In the main economies, the industry is currently weakening, and the high interest rates will keep central banks around for a long time to come. That could cut demand for oil. In addition, Saudi Arabia’s GDP fell due to production cuts. It is so possible that if the production is limited, the country will not be able to absorb it, or rather the opposite. The Czech crown took a breather, sending it in line with the euro from 24.70 to 24.50 CZK/EUR. In the case of the crown, however, spe has weakened. Due to changing factors, fuel prices could drop by more than a crown in the coming weeks. The correction will then affect gasoline in particular – the main travel season is over and demand will decrease. A sharp correction in diesel prices will then prevent the demand for heating oil, which grows with the onset of winter.
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However, the situation at the nearby entrance still poses a great risk. Diplomatic negotiations can fail at any time, and a failed ground operation in the Gaza Strip could drive oil prices to record highs. Israel even healed it with an operation in the Gaza Strip, but this is not a big planned invasion. The worst scenario for oil prices was the involvement of Iran, Lebanon and the fall of the USA in the conflict. In such a case, the price of oil may attack even the historical maximum of around 140 dollars per barrel. This topic was also addressed by the World Bank, which estimates the impact on the oil market in the event of further escalation of the conflict. If I further reduce oil prices by 500 thousand and 2 million barrels per day, according to them, the price of oil will rise to 93 and 102 dollars. A similar situation occurred with the wolf in Libya. If you were to be limited by 3 and 5 million barrels, the price of oil would be equal to 109 and 121 dollars. Such a situation occurred in Ireland in 2003. The worst scenario, in which daily production in the volume of 6 and 8 million barrels of oil would drop, could drive oil prices to 140 and 157 dollars. The risk for further oil price growth is therefore not enough. Fuel prices at our gas stations could, in the worst case, be as high as 50 K per liter. The World Bank estimates the average price of oil at the end of this year at 90 dollars, then at around 80 dollars per barrel in the fifth year of cooling the world economy.
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I have been active in the financial markets since 2014. Like many investors, I started with forex trading based on technical analysis, gradually broadening my horizons to trading commodities, cryptocurrency and long-term investments in shares and ETF funds. In my career so far, I have worked as a chief analyst and macroeconomist, securities trader and investment analyst in a private equity fund. I am talking to you about my experience in fundamental and technical analysis and my ability to analyze the effects of current macroeconomic trends on the world’s financial markets.
Purple Trading is a company with Czech roots that trades in valuable peppers and is based on a certain STP forex model with the possibility of passive investment in ETF portfolios. Outside the esk market, psob Purple Trading is in Italy or Poland.
The company’s vision is to build a strong community of profitable and long-term traders and investors. Therefore, every client has access to the Purple Academy, where in the Purple Toolbox you will find a whole series of tools, analyzes and seeds, on which, for example, the legend of the Czech trading scene, Jaroslav Tup, collaborates
Stuff at www.purple-trading.com/cs/.