According to analysts polled by CNBC, oil prices will remain broadly stable near current levels for the remainder of this year and could decline slightly next year.
Brent fell towards USD 95 yesterday amid concerns about global economic developments and thus sufficient demand levels. US WTI crude reached $89 per barrel yesterday.
Analysts at JPMorgan Chase are keeping their estimates at an average level of $101 per barrel through the end of the year. For the year 2023, the average will drop slightly towards USD 98 per barrel of Brent. According to the bank’s analysts, the risk is the fact that expectations towards a possible economic recession are not yet priced in on the market. In an economic recession, oil prices usually weaken by about 30-40%.
Analysts at Abu Dhabi Bank still expect an average price of Brent for this year at USD 108 per barrel. The outlook for the next year is then lower at USD 97 per barrel.
Analysts at S&P Global estimate that oil will end the year slightly above current levels. At the same time, the main engine of development will be geopolitical factors rather than the classic relationship between demand and supply.
Refinitiv Oil Research analysts, as one of the few, count on the possibility of a significant increase in prices, mainly due to rising gas prices in Europe. In addition, Saudi Arabia is toying with the idea of reducing its production.
In the “industry” for more than 20 years. After several years of experience directly from securities trading, Vladimir Urbanek for the last more than 15 years, he has been covering domestic and foreign capital markets.
He considers the experience, or rather the possibility of comparison with the time before the last big crisis in 2008-9, to be important.