One or two generations back. The secret document warns the Russian government of the deep impact of the sanctions

The document is the result of several months of efforts by officials and experts to evaluate the real effects of the isolation of the Russian economy, which is a consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It was prepared for a closed-door meeting of top Russian officials on August 30, Bloomberg reported, adding that people familiar with the proceedings confirmed its authenticity.

Two of the three scenarios in the paper assume that the economic downturn will accelerate next year and the economy will return to pre-war levels by the end of the decade at the earliest. The most pessimistic scenario assumes that the economy will bottom out in 2024, when it will be 11.9 percent weaker than last year.

All three scenarios assume that the pressure caused by sanctions will increase. Europe’s shift away from Russian gas and oil could disrupt Moscow’s ability to supply the domestic market, according to the document.

The document also points out that Russia is now facing a blockade that affects virtually all forms of transport. He also points to technological and financial constraints and estimates that up to 200,000 IT professionals could leave the country by 2025.

At the same time, Russian officials say publicly that the effects of the sanctions are milder than expected, and that the decline in the economy could be less than three percent this year and slow down next year.

One or two generations back

According to the document, the main short-term risk related to restrictions on imports is the suspension of domestic production due to a lack of imported raw materials and components. In the longer term, the inability to repair imported equipment could lead to a permanent limitation of economic growth. “There are simply no alternative suppliers for some key imports,” the document says.

Limited access to Western technology could put Russia one to two generations behind current standards, as the country will have to rely on less advanced alternatives from China and Southeast Asia, according to the document. The document also warns that the sanctions will require a review of a number of goals that Russian President Vladimir Putin announced before the war, including plans to boost population growth and increase life expectancy.

Russia is plunging into economic oblivion, sanctions are effective, Yale study claims


Deliveries to Europe will not replace other markets

The document warns that within a year or two, Russia faces a decline in production in a number of export-oriented industries, including oil, gas, metals, chemicals and wood products. According to the document, although some recovery is possible later, “these sectors will cease to be the engine of the economy”.

A complete interruption of gas supplies to Europe could deprive the Russian Federation of tax revenues of up to 400 billion rubles (over 160 billion CZK) per year. At the same time, it will not be possible to fully compensate for the shortfall in supplies with the help of new markets, even in the medium term, the document warns.

It also warns that these developments will require production cuts, which will threaten the Kremlin’s plans to increase domestic gas supplies. The European Union’s plans to end Russian oil imports could also lead to a decline in Russian production and supply problems for the Russian market, according to the document.

We will not resume gas supplies to Europe until you lift the sanctions, Moscow said


At the same time, the Kremlin issued a clear message on Monday through its spokesman Dmitry Peskov: gas supplies from Russia to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline will not be fully restored until the West lifts the sanctions imposed on Moscow.

The gas pipeline was out of service for three days last week due to planned maintenance, the flow of gas to Europe was supposed to resume on Saturday, but in the end it did not happen. According to Gazprom, maintenance revealed defects.

The article is in Czech

Tags: generations secret document warns Russian government deep impact sanctions

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