Meteorologist Student: We won’t enjoy the snow much this year. After an above-average warm autumn, a warm winter will come iRADIO

The Copernicus service compared temperatures with the warm thirty years from 1991 to 2020. The measured deviation was 0.85°C higher than the global average.

Guest: meteorologist Michal Žák. Hosted by Zita Senková

“However, if we compared the temperature with the period before the full onset of fossil fuels, i.e. with the second half of the 19th century, when we have available global data, we would arrive at a deviation of 1.6 or 1.7 °C,” he explains in the program Jak to vidí … meteorologist Michal Žák.

In the Paris climate agreements from 2015, a deviation of 1.5 °C was set as the limit of maximum warming.“We should ideally not exceed this level at all on a global average. On the other hand, it must be emphasized that the Paris Agreements speak of an average over a longer period of time, for example a decade. Now we are talking about a few months, although it is very likely that we will exceed this deviation this year.”

El Niño and people

According to Michal Žák, the rate of warming is alarming, even though it would be one of the warmest years so far.

“However, the probability that 2023 will become the warmest year on record is already close to 99%. For this not to be the case, some extraordinary impulse would have to come, for example a massive volcanic explosion or the fall of a meteorite. But let’s believe that it won’t happen, the consequences would of course be negative.”

The reasons why Europe is so hot now are well known.

“A phenomenon known as El is currently underway in the Pacific OceanNinoi.e. the warm phase, when the central and eastern Pacific is significantly above average in temperature byagainst the long-term average. This, of course, also affects what happens in the atmosphere, and therefore also the fact that the temperature on our planet is warmer. But the influence of man and anthropogenic climate change is dominant,” warns the meteorologist.

Will it be a warm winter?

The unusually warm autumn has its effects, of course. “The main impact has to do with how much precipitation has fallen. But the most obvious impact is the extension of the growing season. Leaf color occurred later, in some areas by almost three weeks, than the long-term average. IN some areas there are still leaves on the trees…”

Although people usually perceive the warm autumn positively, from the point of view of nature and vegetation, it is not positive, according to Žák.

“A warm autumn, for example, is a complication for fishermen. Above-average warm weather manifests itself in warmer water in the ponds, which then makes fishing more difficult. Fish react differently in warmer water than when the water is cooler, as it should be at this time of year.”

According to Žák, it can be expected that this winter will be above average warm as well.

“Although seasonal forecasts for the Central European region are very difficult, it can still be expected that this winter will be warm. We have had the warmest September and October in the history of measurements, the entire period from June was warm, the water in the Atlantic is also above average. Physically, it is not realistic that this year’s winter will be extremely harsh. Rather it will be wetter with less snow,” says the Student.

Zita Senková, brother

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