esk economy is fine. But the wolf to Ukraine is a sharp cut from the dynamics

The output of the Czech economy will continue to rise from the second quarter of 2021. The quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year dynamics are weakening, but this is not a non-standard development. The economy is still recovering from the coronavirus pandemic and looking for a stable trajectory, which could be hit by the moon.

The second and third quarters of 2018 brought a quarter-on-quarter economic growth of one percent, since the last quarter of 2018, the figures have been roughly halved, according to data from the Czech Statistical Office.

In particular, the development in the second quarter of 2022 was surprising, according to the economist, including the analyst of Wonderinterest Trading. Despite the crisis in Ukraine, which affected it for the whole second quarter, the Czech economy was able to show performance growth of 0.5 (quarter-on-quarter) and 3.7 percent (quarter-on-quarter), respectively. The driver of interannual GDP growth was corporate investment and thus spending on final consumption by government institutions.

Income on gross domestic product, table prices of 2015, seasonal utility

quarter

SC of 2015 (mil. K, sez.o.)

Meziron change (in %)

Quarter-on-quarter change (in %)

2021Q1

1,270,186

-1.9

-0.5

2021Q2

1,288,058

9.1

1.4

2021Q3

1,309,940

3.8

1.7

2021Q4

1,321,033

3.5

0.8

2022Q1

1,329,226

4.6

0.6

2022Q2

1,335,366

3.7

0.5

Source: esk statistick ad

Thanks to the surprisingly good results of the Czech economy in the second summer quarter, a number of domestic institutions updated their macroeconomic predictions. So far, they have largely coped with a slight economic recession in the second quarter, which should have severely dented the result for the entire summer. Now, in the predictions, the year 2023 comes out as the year when economic growth will radically change.

The Ministry of Finance has updated its forecast that the output of the domestic economy will increase by 2.2 percent this year, but for the fifth year, GDP growth is expected to be only 1.3 percent. In 2024 and 2025, economic growth should hover above the two percent limit.

Similar development of the national bank. This is only slightly optimistic for this year, according to Zbyk Stanjura, who expects the GDP of the Czech Republic to rise by 2.3 percent. For the fifth year, he is working with a drop in economic growth to 1.1 percent, in 2024, on the other hand, there will be a sharp acceleration of the domestic economy, namely to 3.8 percent. However, NB does not forecast the year 2025.

The Czech Banking Association agrees with the Czech National Bank in its forecast. At least in terms of how the dramatic drop in GDP growth will occur according to him. This year, according to BA, the Czech economy will grow by 2.4 percent, for the fifth year there will be only a slight increase of over one percent.

The predictions of foreign institutions make it a little outdated in the context of current developments. For example, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has the most recent prediction from June of this year. In 2022, the forecast for the Czech Republic is economic growth of 1.8 percent, and for 2023 GDP growth of two percent. The OECD, however, sees the economic development of the Czech Republic as a domestic institution.

The (yet) latest macroeconomic prediction of the European Commission, which is from the European Union, gives a similar impression. But even just one month more (compared to the OECD) was apparently worth incorporating new facts, because the European Commission expects the same economic growth for this year as the Czech National Bank, i.e. at more than 2.3 percent. In the fifth year, there is strong optimism, or a year with an increase in Czech GDP of equal to two percent.

Prediction of the GDP development of selected institutions (measurement of the change in real GDP in %)

Year

Ministry of Finance

esk national bank

esk bank association

European Commission

OECD

2022

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.3

1.8

2023

1.3

1.1

1.0

2.0

2.0

2024

2.8

3.8

2025

2.5

Source: Macroeconomic prediction of individual institutions

However, the common denominator of all predictions is a high level of uncertainty. The only thing that is certain is that the economic development of the Czech Republic (as well as the rest of Europe) will be affected by the course and duration of the war on Ukraine, as will the development of natural gas and oil supplies from the Russian Federation to the European Union. It is therefore certain that the macroeconomic predictions of the various institutions will change in the coming months as well.

Wonderinterest Trading Ltd is a deemed representative of the pepper trader, Wonderinterest Trading Ltd, with registered office at 176 Makariou III Avenue, Paschalis Avenue House, Limassol 3072, Cyprus. We are the holder of the registration issued by the Czech National Bank. As a client, we will have the opportunity to work with your finances at the highest level with a professional merchant. Our services are provided in a simple and understandable manner with a focus on quality and customer satisfaction.

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Roman Vykouil

Executive

Roman Vykouil, after graduating from the technical and economic secondary school in Brno, gained work experience in England, Germany, Austria and Germany (2013-2015).

He then worked in customer services and CRM as a clerk and then as a client service manager in the field of investment services. Since the beginning of 2020, she has led the company Wonderinterest Trading s.r.o. She is a recognized representative of the valuable pepper trader, Wonderinterest Trading Ltd, based in Cyprus.

Wonderinterest Trading Ltd

Wonderinterest Trading s.r.o., the holder of the registration issued by the Czech National Bank, promotes the investment services of the represented merchant, the company Wonderinterest Trading Ltd, through a contract concluded between the investment company and the customer, and provides administrative and technical support for these investment services.

More information at https://wonderinteresttrading.cz/.

The article is in Czech

Tags: esk economy fine wolf Ukraine sharp cut dynamics

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