The pace of the counteroffensive in southern Ukraine is likely to “vary dramatically from day to day,” according to the Institute for the Study of War. Ukrainian forces appear to be seeking to deprive the Russians of supplies, disrupt their command and control operations, and weaken their morale.
“The Russians will occasionally counterattack and regain some lost territory, but they will probably carry out heavy artillery and air attacks on liberated villages and advancing Ukrainian troops,” the institute also warns.
He also noted that Ukraine’s progress had begun to lead to “more realistic commentary” by Russian military bloggers, who until now had supported the Kremlin’s very optimistic rhetoric.
Offensive in Donbass
The British Ministry of Defense wrote in Monday’s regular report, based on intelligence information, that it is “highly unlikely” that Russian forces will achieve the goal of completing the mission in Donbass by September 15, as ordered by the Kremlin.
“They are highly unlikely to achieve this, further complicating Russia’s plans to hold referendums in the occupied territories on joining the Russian Federation,” the British ministry said in a report.
According to London, Russia’s main effort “almost certainly” remains its offensive in Donbass. “The main axes of advance on Donbass continue to be at Avdijivka near the city of Donetsk and 60 kilometers north around Bakhmut,” confirms the British Ministry of Defence.
“Although Russia has had the greatest success in this sector, its forces are advancing towards Bakhmut at a rate of around one kilometer per week,” the British ministry added.
The Southern Command of the Ukrainian military says on Monday that the 127th Regiment of the Russian 1st Army Corps refused to fulfill its duties due to insufficient support and poor conditions, including a lack of water. According to the Ukrainian military, Russian special forces took action against these soldiers and removed them from their posts. Such information cannot be reliably verified.
Attacks continued over the weekend in the Sumy region in northeastern Ukraine. Local governor Dmytro Žyvyckyj informed that shelling hit the region forty times on Sunday. The area around the village of Znob-Novgorodske suffered the most, where 15 explosions thundered during the day. Russia reportedly shelled the area with artillery shells and damaged the electrical transmission system.
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