Putin mobilized for catastrophic defeat

IN TODAY’S EPISODE YOU WILL LEARN, AMONG OTHER THINGS:

Immediate impact of mobilization 1:00 a.m

  • Nuclear threats 2:42 am
  • Form of mobilization 6:50 am
  • The Germans set up a training center in Russia 3:45 p.m
  • Iran can hardly help, it has its own problems 17:12
  • Putin started the war based on erroneous intelligence 31:54
  • Prisoner exchange 35:45

Mikulecký is convinced that Vladimir Putin resorted to mobilization, which he had resisted until now, primarily because of developments on the front. And the pressure of nationalists does not play a role in it.

“I don’t think that Solovyov, Dugin or Girkin, who was behind the start of the war in Donbass in 2014, had and have any influence on the decision-making of Vladimir Vladimirovich (Putin). These people could be shut down by Putin and the apparatus he has around him at any time,” said Mikulecký.

“I don’t think he’s subject to the whims of the street. Information about the disaster of his army, which occurred on part of the Ukrainian front, had to reach Putin through the filters he has around him. And the only logical solution is to strengthen the army, I wouldn’t look for anything more than that,” he added.

“The primary reason for the partial mobilization is that the Russians do not have manpower at the front. It is one of the biggest problems of Russia and its war in Ukraine,” the analysts stated the reason for the partial mobilization.

“They are not people, they need to be replenished, and they have already reached as far as it could go. Troops stationed all over the territory of Russia were looted, prisons were looted. And when no one comes forward even in prison, then people are caught on the street. Just as it already happened in the territory of DLR and LNR (Russian-occupied territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions),” he added.

Švamberk added that Russia also withdrew soldiers from its units stationed in other countries.

However, Mikulecký pointed out that partial mobilization will not have any immediate effect on the battlefield.

The Russians have not yet received such a lesson that they cannot win the war

A useless war

“From a military point of view, with an immediate impact on the front, partial mobilization does not change anything. The use of the word partial mobilization is interesting, which is supposed to evoke that from Russia’s point of view, it is not a war in relation to Ukraine,” emphasized Mikulecký.

“Nevertheless, the Russian population has already correctly understood that this is a preparation for a real war, which can be seen from how many of them are fleeing Russia by all possible means,” he added.

He emphasized that, according to Putin, Russia is fighting the West.

“In Putin’s speech, it was said several times that if it were Ukrainians, the Russians would have overrun them in a week, but since they are actually fighting NATO, America and the West, they need reinforcements. So the Russians tell themselves that there is still nothing to fear because Putin knows what he is doing. And that’s why the country doesn’t need the complete mobilization yet,” Mikulecký pointed out.

The annexation of territory will create the impression that the fighting is in Russia

Mikulecký also emphasized the risk of speeding up referendums in the occupied territories, on the basis of which these territories would join the Russian Federation.

“The Russians will be able to claim – another red line has been crossed, because now the fighting is on the territory of the Russian Federation. This may lead to the fact that the Russians might want to call in more troops,” the analyst admitted.

However, according to him, the current mobilization of 300,000 soldiers will not be without difficulties, and not only because it is becoming increasingly clear that the Russians do not want to fight and especially die for Putin’s dreams of a great empire.

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Mikulecký pointed out that mobilizing such a large number of people will take time, moreover, the soldiers must prepare for war.

“It’s often perceived as taking 300,000 men on the street and throwing them at the front, but that’s not the case. You call in specialists and officers, and the last ones are the ones you will fill the queue with and who need training. Even in the Russian army, there is a system of calling up reserves, where you start with specialists, weapon operators, who know something that cannot be learned in a week,” he said.

“The question is how many such people Russia still has. A large part of those who were interested and capable of something were selected by semi-private armies, the most famous of which in the West are the Wagners. The question is whether they still have somewhere to go,” he added, adding that this is not Russia’s only problem.

There will be no rapid supply of soldiers to the front

“The Russians do declare millions in reserves, but when we see what a problem they have to shoe, clothe, arm, supply and feed the soldiers they have on the front today, it will be a big problem to procure the other 300,000. And I think that this will be an unsolvable problem for Russia,” Mikulecký mentioned another problem with mobilization.

“The fact that they would put a million soldiers on the front during full mobilization is complete science fiction beyond the capabilities of today’s Russia. “The Russians can relatively quickly bring units of thousands of men to the front, namely those who have recently finished the army, have gone through training and who manage to be captured at their place of residence and have not yet escaped,” Mikulecký pointed out.

“But don’t believe that the Russians will deploy 300,000 men to the front in the coming days or weeks. In this number, we can see them at the front in usable condition sometime after the New Year,” he added, adding that by then the Ukrainians would have long been entrenched in their new positions.

COMMENTARY: Russia is waiting for its Vietnam – Alex Švamberk

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But Mikulecký said that it could be even later, because the preparation will take time.

“If we take a person from scratch, according to our Western standards, to be on the battlefield for something other than to die a heroic death, then in the accelerated mode we will be talking about at least six months. And that in a system that is set up for such training, is well established, has enough instructors, simulators and equipment for it. And that is not a Russian case,” he pointed out.

Perhaps with one exception and that is the Mulino training camp. “There, the Russians have the advantage that, thanks to the great and unceasing support of Germany, they managed to build a modern and top-class training center at their disposal. By the way, it was built even after the annexation of Crimea,” added Mikulecký.

But it will also be difficult to equip new soldiers with good quality. “We see technology from the 1980s as well, but in the case of artillery systems from the 1950s, these are museum pieces,” Mikulecký pointed out.

Moreover, almost no one helps Russia from other countries. “China is not supplying anything. The only ally that Russia has left is Iran, because Iran has really started supplying Russia with some types of weapons, standby munitions, so-called suicide drones, and they are actually causing damage to the Ukrainian side,” he added.

Lonely Russia

Švamberk recalled that in the speech, Putin once again threatened to use all the weapons that Russia has in its arsenal, and emphasized that he was not bluffing, which was widely covered by the Western media.

“I would never underestimate Russia, it never paid off, but turning over and dissecting every such statement ten times is not worth it. We have already experienced a number of threats since the beginning of the conflict. Unfortunately, these threats apply to some Western politicians, and the Russians are trying it,” said Švamberk.

“No one on the Russian side has a reason to deploy weapons of mass destruction, whether prohibited chemical or nuclear, because it would have no benefit for Russia in the current battles, and on the contrary, it would deprive Russia of the last support, albeit lukewarm, that it has somewhere in the world ,” he added.

Both men agreed that Russia is losing support even in the post-Soviet space. “The Kazakh president allowed himself to make gestures towards Putin that in another era would mean that the Russian army is already encamped in Astana,” said Mikulecký, who also criticized the lax policy of Brussels.

COMMENT: Russia is weakening, the armed clashes of the former Soviet republics show – Alex Švamberk

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“The mistake of the European Union is that it does not try to win not only Kazakhstan, but also other currently abandoned countries of the post-Soviet space on its side. This would also hinder China’s expansionism,” he added.

Švamberk pointed out that conflicts are spreading between Armenia and Azerbaijan or Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, from where Russian soldiers have withdrawn in order to be thrown into the fighting in Ukraine.

“The post-Soviet space is starting to fight with each other, which does not bode well for Russia in the future, considering how many national minorities there are in the territory of the Russian Federation and how ethnic Russians treat minorities, especially in the Asian part of Russia,” Mikulecký pointed out.

“So far, it seems that by starting the war in Ukraine, Putin has directed his country to where the Soviet Union directed it with its invasion of Afghanistan, that is, to continued disintegration,” he added.

Intelligence failure

However, Mikulecký does not agree that Putin has demonstrated poor strategic skills.

“It is becoming more and more clear that Putin was based on completely wrong intelligence information. Newsmen and generals began to tell the ruler what the ruler wanted to hear and not the truth. Russian services presented the president with information that Ukraine is corrupt,” Mikulecký said.

“Ukraine should have been in moral decay, the Ukrainian army should not have existed, the fifth column should have been paid, it was said that it was enough to capture Zelenskyi and Ukraine would be theirs. The reason why Putin’s plan didn’t work out wasn’t because he had a bad idea,” the analyst admitted.

COMMENTARY: Russian thief shouts catch the thief – Alex Švamberk

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“He just had the wrong input data. He had a plan well thought out for what he had information on. For example, in Crimea in 2014, it worked out perfectly for him. The Ukrainian army didn’t really fight there, and it was more or less just a victory parade for the Russians,” he added.

Mikulecký said that under the given situation, the West must help as much as possible. “We must not slack off in our support for Ukraine. If we slack off, Ukraine would succumb, even if it did not lose the entire territory, but only a part, in the long term the West will take it,” Mikulecký admitted.

“Even if we don’t lose the war in terms of human losses, we will lose it economically because we bet on supporting Ukraine. Either we persevere in it and Ukraine will win and the seriousness of the West will strengthen. Or if we lose, it would be another decline of the European Union, the North Atlantic Alliance and everything we believe in,” he added.

The article is in Czech

Tags: Putin mobilized catastrophic defeat

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