Waiting for a miracle weapon is nonsense. War is a complex thing, says security analyst | iRADIO

If General Zaluzhny mainly emphasizes the importance of the air force, do the Ukrainians have a chance that in a matter of months they will receive the American F-16 fighter jets and could this really mean a breakthrough?
They clearly have. I think it’s practically a given. Ukrainian pilots are already undergoing training in several countries of Western Europe, possibly the United States, so that they can take over F-16 fighters in a matter of months.

It is estimated that several dozen F-16s will arrive in Ukraine sometime early next spring. Of course, the key will be the number that we don’t know at the moment, but yes, it is one of the elements.

I must emphasize that always waiting for a miracle weapon like this is of course nonsense. War is a complex thing, a complex concept, and those F-16 fighters can of course co-decide the war, but they will certainly not be the only factors.

Even Zaluzhny admits that Ukraine needs to implement new procedures and technologies. So what do you mean by that?
General Zaluzhny mentioned three main factors. Namely, the first is building air superiority. That’s what we talked about now during that first question. I would put it very simply. I’m sure many of us remember Operation Desert Storm in 1991, when Allied forces drove the Iraqi invasion forces out of Kuwait.

And it needs to be said that the operation was preceded by five weeks of intensive bombing and building air supremacy. In this, I want to clearly underline that air superiority and the support of the fighter air force or other air forces to those ground units is crucial.

General Zaluzhny realized this very well. After all, it’s one of the reasons why the ground offensive from this summer didn’t quite work out. Quite simply, Ukraine did not have air superiority, and that is really essential.

The second point is the means of electronic warfare. These are mainly intended as anti-drone means, that means to eliminate as much as possible the attacks of unmanned means of the Russian Federation.

And finally, the third, also stemming from that summer offensive, is the means and new technologies for demining.

It was the minefields, which, by the way, in Ukraine have an area larger than the Czech Republic itself, once again co-decided that Ukraine did not achieve the fundamental breakthrough it was striving for. And so those are the three main points that General Zaluzhnyi mentioned.

You already mentioned that the counter-offensive did not bring the gains that Kyiv had promised after almost half a year. In addition to the fact that Ukraine did not have air superiority, are there any other, let’s say, tactical or strategic mistakes or shortcomings?
We have already mentioned that, it was precisely those minefields that slowed down the progress of the Ukrainian troops. It was a number of factors. Plain and simple, the Surovikin line was built very well, very strong and very deep, and served its purpose from the point of view of the Russian Federation.

Ukraine hoped to break through it with concentrated attacks, and then it could gain the advantage it has against Russia, which we have not mentioned yet. These are the maneuver bundles that Ukraine still has, they have not been dispersed. Ukraine still has the reserves, but the point is to break that line.

Perhaps one more detail. We are talking about the alleged failure of the ground offensive. Yes, to some extent that is true, but we have not mentioned the most important thing. Ukraine achieved its greatest success this year. Not on the land field, but on the sea field. Ukraine managed to push the Russian Navy out of the western part of the Black Sea. This is simply an outstanding achievement.

General Zalužný’s article sounds like a really urgent challenge to the West. Can it be said that it reflects a certain frustration from the current negotiations, from further arms deliveries to Ukraine?
I don’t want to say completely that frustration, but with this article, Zaluzhny clearly aims to ensure that the West does not forget about Ukraine, that the West persists in supporting Ukraine. Because it goes without saying that thanks to the fact that the invasion has been going on since February 24 of last year, sooner or later the help from Western Europe will be blunted, and it must not be blunted.

This is what Russia is after. Yes, Russia has started Polo war production and will be able to supply its troops to some extent in the coming months or years. But Ukraine is really dependent on the supply of weapons systems from the West, and they must not let up. Only then does Ukraine have a chance.

Věra Štechrová, trs

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