Up to 80 percent of small traders lose money on the financial markets. Professional matadors say it’s a job like any other and success doesn’t come by itself. They told the participants of the investment summit what they are investing in now. It will come as a surprise to many that they don’t believe in gold that much.
At this fall’s Global Investment Summit, professional brokers let inside their kitchen and shared some interesting investment opportunities they are currently pursuing.
Quite a few of them agreed on a negative outlook for gold, which has recently been attacking the threshold of two thousand dollars per troy ounce. “In the past, investors have already refused to go with the price of gold above two thousand dollars three times,” says Vladimír Holovka from the XTB company. “Gold above two thousand dollars is very expensive, it’s unsustainable,” Ondřej Hartman from FXStreet.cz seconded him. “Within a few months, I expect its price to drop,” he adds.
The Czech economy will continue to be dragged down by European experiments, economic leaders agreed at the GIS conference
Excessive regulation, problems in the energy sector, effects of deglobalization. The main negative factors that will affect the European economy and also the Czech economy in the coming years. An advantage could be the relatively cheap workforce that the Czech Republic can offer to global players. Top economists who estimated the development of key indicators of the economy in a panel discussion at the Global Investment Summit agreed on this.
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The gold market was stirred last spring by the war in Ukraine. It was then that gold confirmed its reputation as a store of value. Investors sought it as an insurance policy against sharp economic downturns and high inflation. The reason for the negative outlook for gold is the continued growth of the US economy as well as weakening inflationary pressures. For example, analysts from Capital Economics believe that by the end of 2023, gold prices will fall to $1,900 per ounce.
US bonds are a safe bet
The Czech crown has not had a successful summer. The domestic currency weakened to the level of 24.70 crowns per euro, where it was last year. “The koruna will continue to weaken for some time, but then the decline will stop,” Hartman expects. “I would see a ceiling of 25 to 25.20 crowns per euro. Then I would bet on the strengthening of the domestic currency,” he added.
Holovka and also Gabriel Jurčák, founder of Edge Capital, they believe in US Treasuries. Their price, which moves against income, fell thanks to the rise in interest rates in the past year. This period could already be coming to an end. “Now we are reaching the peak of interest rates, so I think that the moment for buying government bonds could come,” outlines Holovka.
Stanislav Šulc: Bitcoin is growing. Will it climb to a million dollars? And why not straight to a billion?
The cryptocurrency market is experiencing an extraordinary boom. On Monday, the US court approved the possibility of opening the first ETF linked to bitcoin, which will open the door to the crypto for the largest investment vehicles, led by the giant BlackRock. It can be expected that the massive influx of money into crypto will drive the prices of Bitcoin and Ether to dizzying heights in particular. And so one can expect popular races in estimates of how far the price of Bitcoin will rise. However, it has many catches.
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Non-professionals reap losses
From the statistics that brokers have to publish since 2017, it follows that on average 80 percent of small traders are unprofitable. “These statistics are influenced by those who come, start doing business and think that they will have a Lamborghini within a month and a yacht within six months,” says Holovka. “They then quickly leave trading and leave a negative mark in the statistics.”
The moderator of the summit, Jan Novotný, added advice that no more than two percent of the portfolio should be invested in so-called “day trading”.
Safe bet? Bonds today, says UniCredit’s head of investment strategy
The world we knew is changing irrevocably and there are fundamental geopolitical changes, climate change and the remodeling of global trade. And investors will also have to react to all this. Even more than before, it will be essential for them to be able to orientate themselves on the financial market and choose the most suitable investment strategy, says Manuela D’Onofrio, investor and head of the UniCredit Group’s investment strategy, in an interview for newstream.cz.
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