Brokers: Gold awaits a slide | Newstream


Up to 80 percent of small traders lose money on the financial markets. Professional matadors say it’s a job like any other and success doesn’t come by itself. They told the participants of the investment summit what they are investing in now. It will come as a surprise to many that they don’t believe in gold that much.

At this fall’s Global Investment Summit, professional brokers let inside their kitchen and shared some interesting investment opportunities they are currently pursuing.

Quite a few of them agreed on a negative outlook for gold, which has recently been attacking the threshold of two thousand dollars per troy ounce. “In the past, investors have already refused to go with the price of gold above two thousand dollars three times,” says Vladimír Holovka from the XTB company. “Gold above two thousand dollars is very expensive, it’s unsustainable,” Ondřej Hartman from seconded him. “Within a few months, I expect its price to drop,” he adds.

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The gold market was stirred last spring by the war in Ukraine. It was then that gold confirmed its reputation as a store of value. Investors sought it as an insurance policy against sharp economic downturns and high inflation. The reason for the negative outlook for gold is the continued growth of the US economy as well as weakening inflationary pressures. For example, analysts from Capital Economics believe that by the end of 2023, gold prices will fall to $1,900 per ounce.

US bonds are a safe bet

The Czech crown has not had a successful summer. The domestic currency weakened to the level of 24.70 crowns per euro, where it was last year. “The koruna will continue to weaken for some time, but then the decline will stop,” Hartman expects. “I would see a ceiling of 25 to 25.20 crowns per euro. Then I would bet on the strengthening of the domestic currency,” he added.

Holovka and also Gabriel Jurčák, founder of Edge Capital, they believe in US Treasuries. Their price, which moves against income, fell thanks to the rise in interest rates in the past year. This period could already be coming to an end. “Now we are reaching the peak of interest rates, so I think that the moment for buying government bonds could come,” outlines Holovka.

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Non-professionals reap losses

From the statistics that brokers have to publish since 2017, it follows that on average 80 percent of small traders are unprofitable. “These statistics are influenced by those who come, start doing business and think that they will have a Lamborghini within a month and a yacht within six months,” says Holovka. “They then quickly leave trading and leave a negative mark in the statistics.”

The moderator of the summit, Jan Novotný, added advice that no more than two percent of the portfolio should be invested in so-called “day trading”.

investor and head of UniCredit Group's investment strategy Manuela D'Onofrio

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The article is in Czech

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