There is another UFC tournament and with it the betting window. In collaboration with betting company Tipsport, we bring you analysis and tips for the UFC Fight Night gala, which takes place in Brazil. In the main event of the evening, we will see a heavyweight fight between Jailton Almeida and Derrick Lewis. In addition, Rinat Fakhretdinov, Caio Boralho, Abus Magomedov or Gabriel Bonfin will perform at this gala evening. You can watch the entire UFC gala evening on Saturday from 11:00 PM on TV Tipsport.
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OCTAGON 48 Dear: Embarrassing attempt at another cheat and a big choke
Jailton Almeida vs Derrick Lewis – Almeida wins by submission 1.85
Jailton Almeida boasts great grappling numbers: averaging 6.4 takedowns per match and a 68% takedown delivery success rate. Lewis certainly doesn’t come close to those numbers, as evidenced by his 0.59 takedowns average per match, a 28% takedown delivery success rate. The only percentage in which Lewis is better than Almeida is defending takedowns at 52% to his 50%, but of course we have to look for other strengths in Lewis such as his punching power.
Although Almeida is known for his boxing skills (he started as a boxer), he is expected to use his very good grappling (black belt in BJJ) against Lewis to neutralize the power that the “Black Beast” possesses. He had the same plan in May 2023, when he fought the equally strong Jair Rozenstruik and finished him by submission in the first round. Lewis, on the other hand, will want to assert his power early in the fight, just as he did against de Lima in his previous fight in July 2023, when he surprised from the start with a jumping knee that immediately sent his opponent to the ground. This was also the beginning of the Brazilian’s end. However, “Malhadinho” will certainly be wary of Lewis’ explosive start and will try to get him to the ground as quickly as possible, where he then goes for the submission victory.
Gabriel Bonfim vs Nicolas Dalby – Bonfim to win on 5.00 points
Like Almeida, Gabriel Bonfim is a very dangerous grappler who has won 80% of his matches by submission. However, unlike his Brazilian counterpart, he faces a better prepared fighter. Bonfim rarely lands just one punch and often works both body and head in one combination. His punches are often well timed and well placed. As soon as he hits the opponent, he tries to get him to the ground and take his back.
However, Dalby is a seasoned veteran who has never been finished! He uses his excellent cardio, quick movement and complete MMA skills to take his opponents deep and beat them with endurance and toughness. He has an excellent chin and very good defense. Most importantly though, Dalby has a high wrestling IQ and often takes the path of least resistance in a match. He can counterattack patiently or combine aggressively, he can hold his own in the clinch and hold position against opponents with poor cardio. He can roll over purebred standers and run over purebred grapplers at the same time.
If it wasn’t for a fight in Brazil, where fighters from Europe historically don’t do well, I’d try betting on Dalby’s victory on points at odds of 7.50. However, there is also a tempting offer for the Brazilian to win on points at odds of 5.00. Although Bonfim has never experienced point results, he has never faced such a high-quality and durable opponent, this time I see it as an even match, where after three rounds the referee will raise his hand to the home fighter. The odds that the fight will end at 3.58 points are also interesting.