9/11/2023 15:56, BAACEZ
Assembled operating indicators are without surprises and are very punchy. At the end of this year, EZ reported that for this year it will sell 98% of its electricity from its production sources for an average of about 125 EUR/MWh. We do not see room for a significant shift in the selling (realized) price this year, unless something extreme happens on the commodity markets. The peak price of spot contracts is now around EUR 100/MWh. Including sales for peak load and the full realization of the electronics, we estimate the price to be in the range of EUR 124,125, which is an increase of EUR 100. EZ uvd for summer year and interval, sales price assumed to be in the range of 124,129 EUR/MWh. This relatively significant increase in the price of electronics is negligible, due to the existence of regulatory measures in the form of price ceilings on production (tax consumption levies), it will not be fully reflected in the full-year EBITDA. Mainly because of this, this year’s expected drop in EBITDA components is a record 131.6 billion kroner, while EZ management estimates it to be 115,120 billion kroner.
For the year 2024, by the end of the summer, EZ will be able to produce 77% of electricity at a price of EUR 130/MWh, which is very reasonable. The price of electricity on the energy exchanges has a decreasing tendency during the summer, or stabilize yourself The Ron contract (for the year 2024) is in the last period between EUR 115,120, when contracts including quarterly ones are around EUR 100-110. We currently estimate the final realized price of electronics for the year 2024 in the range of EUR 126,128. This would therefore be a significant selling price of power electronics, which would allow EZ to generate a strong EBITDA for the fifth year, or it would create the potential for the growth of operating profitability if we consider that in 2024 the regulatory tax in the form of levy on the needs of vrova will be abolished.
Jan Raka, analyst, Fio banka, as