Meziron inflation (without government distortions) fell to 5.8%

In the course of January, domestic consumer prices increased by 0.1% compared to the previous month. Meziron’s comparison (8.5%) is currently significantly distorted by the introduction of the government’s controversial tariff, which at the time was seen as discounted energy. This led to the dream of comparing the price of energy in the warehouse and in the summer. After actually losing this effect, in January the average inflation rate reached 5.8% and compared to (6.9%), it therefore decreased quite significantly. In January, the official inflation statistic (8.5%) was slightly above the estimate of the Czech National Bank (8.3%) and the Czech National Bank (8.4%).

In the meantime, prices rose the most in clothing, clothing and footwear (2.4%), food (0.8%) and health (0.6%), on the other hand, prices fell in the categories of housing (-0.5%), transport (-0 .4%) and alcoholic beverages and tablets (-0.3%). Taking into account the weights of individual categories in the consumption category, the monthly inflation was mainly driven by food and clothing and footwear (a contribution equal to 0.1 percentage point), while it was pulled down by housing (-0.1 percentage point).

Meziron is relatively dominated due to a distorted comparison of the basic housing category, which includes first energy and its controversial tariff with inflation of 19.6%. It is followed by restaurants and lodgings (9.2%) and clothing and footwear (7.9%). It is cheaper only in transport (-2.2%), where last year there was a thorny panic with fuel as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Prices for sweat and telecommunications (3.3%) and food and non-alcoholic beverages (3.7%) were relatively moderate between years. After taking into account the importance of individual categories in consumption, average inflation was logically covered by distorted statistics for housing (contribution of 5.2 percentage points), followed by food (0.7 percentage points), recreation and culture, and food and accommodation (equal to 0.6 percentage points).

only Vt Inflan surprisingly didn’t pick up, the final result would have cosmetically improved the estimate of the market and NB. Although the official statistics report an increase in the inflation rate to 8.5%, this is only a dream effect compared to the basis of the previous year, when energy was artificially discounted by the government’s controversial tariff. Due to this effect, the actual inflation rate reached a value of 5.8%, and compared to the current 6.9%, it decreased quite significantly. A month-on-month price increase of 0.1% can then be considered completely normal in the Czech context, corresponding to the years when inflation was not a macroeconomic problem. According to the current data, the main concern is the price of food, where, despite the continuous drop in producer prices, the consumer did not receive a big discount. The fact that food products are among the most volatile items and the real inflationary pressure does not say much. In this regard, things stink, for example, the prices in restaurants and hostels, which have grown quite normally between months, i.e. without inflation. This can be attributed to slightly discounted recreation and culture as well as to the standard list of discounted clothing and footwear. At this moment, demand inflation does not show warning values ​​and is neither at all nor completely marginal compared to the previous years. In the rest of the year, inflation can be expected to be slightly above 7 percent, which will be the main low compared to last year. Due to the weakening demand pressures, the phenomenon became more realistic, that by the end of 2024, when 2022 will be a cheap year, inflation will fall to around 3 and 4 percent. From the point of view of the National Bank, the daily data on things is not much. to be able to start the process of reducing annual rates mechanically and later, due to the uncertainty regarding the intensity of the new-born pension products and petrvv services.