Cocoa is the most expensive in 44 years due to concerns about insufficient production. The price of a futures contract for a ton of cocoa due in December rose to $3,786 (almost CZK 88,000) on the commodity exchange in New York at the end of October, according to Bloomberg and CNBC news agency, which is the highest since 1979. Year-on-year, it rose by about 60 percent.
According to the BFM Bourse server, this of course does not mean that chocolate will become more expensive. In addition to raw materials, the final price of her table also includes other costs that are probably not as inflationary in nature, such as transportation, processing, packaging, distribution and marketing.
CNBC reported on Monday that rising cocoa prices will result in a high holiday bill, especially as sugar prices have also increased by 52 percent over the past year due to drought and extreme weather conditions, with some producing countries such as India and Mexico, very little rain.
In addition to insufficient production, the tension in the cocoa market also increases the likely growth in demand. According to Spherical Insights, the global cocoa and chocolate market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.37 percent between 2023 and 2030.
“Concerns remain about a lack of supply in West Africa (a region that accounts for around 75 percent of global cocoa production) and forecasts point to a third consecutive global deficit in the 2023-2024 season,” Mirabaud investment adviser John Plassard said in late September.
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) estimated there was a market deficit of 100,000 tonnes in the 2022-2023 season, which ended in September. The cocoa bean harvest was disrupted by adverse weather conditions. This applies in particular to Ivory Coast, which accounts for more than 40 percent of world production.
“A particularly intense period of rain affected the cocoa plantations, causing the flowers to drop immediately after they were formed and promoting the spread of fungal diseases,” Le Monde wrote in September. In a report published at the end of August, ICCO pointed out that these heavy rains also affected Ghana, where 20 percent of the world’s cocoa production is harvested, and caused the same problems.