2024 NBA Playoffs preview, prediction: Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Dallas vs. Oklahoma City has something for everyone.

Do you want star power? How about two of the top three MVP Finalists — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic — facing off? That is the headline of the series.

Do you want to talk deep-dive basketball about adjustments and lineup changes? This is your series. Whichever of these teams defends better, and how they adjust in a chess match of a series, will determine who advances to the Western Conference Finals.

The only thing that feels safe to say about this series is that it will last six or seven games. Let’s break it down.

When does the Mavericks at Thunder series begin?

Game One between the Mavericks and Thunder will be played on Wednesday, May 7, at 9:30 a.m. ET in the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. It will be broadcast on TNT.

Dallas vs. Oklahoma City Playoffs Schedule 2024

All times are Eastern (* = if necessary).

Game 1: Mavericks at Thunder, May 7 (9:30 a.m. ET, TNT)
Game 2: Mavericks at Thunder, May 9 (9:30 a.m. ET, ESPN)
Game 3: Thunder at Mavericks, May 11 (3:30 ET, ABC)
Game 4: Thunder at Mavericks, May 13 (9:30 a.m. ET, TNT)
Game 5: Mavericks at Thunder, May 15 (TBD, TNT)*
Game 6: Thunder at Mavericks, May 18 (8:30 a.m. ET, ESPN)*
Game 7: Mavericks at Thunder, May 20 (8:30 a.m. ET, TNT)*

Three things to watch for in Dallas vs. Oklahoma City

1) Can the Thunder keep Luka Doncic in check?

Oklahoma City had the fourth-best defense in the NBA this past season, but matching up with Luka Doncic is another problem.

OKC doesn’t have an obvious one-on-one matchup for Doncic. The Thunder tend to struggle with physicality, and Doncic loves to play a physical game. Expect Lu Dort to get the initial Doncic assignment — and expect him to flop a few times — but Doncic is taller and can shoot over him, so the Thunder will have to bring help or watch Doncic beat them with step-back jumpers. OKC can put two on the ball and force it out of Doncic’s hands, but he can then get it to Kyrie Irving, who was fantastic in the first round and presents a whole new set of challenges. Sharpshooter Tim Hardaway Jr. is also back for Dallas this series, too.

Chet Holmgren (who could get time on Doncic, too) and his rim protection will be critical if the Thunder are going to win this series.

2) Can Dallas keep the Thunder out of the paint?

Dallas’ Maxi Kleber being out with a dislocated shoulder could loom large in this series. Without him, the Mavericks will always have one of their traditional centers — Daniel Gafford or Dereck Lively II — on the court, and they want to play a drop-back, protect the paint kind of game.

Oklahoma City’s offense plays five-out and led the league in drives. Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams are going to get the switch they want, blow by their man and get into the paint, but if Gafford/Lively are waiting for them then the guards will kick it out and find open shooters on the perimeter to make them pay.

If the Thunder role players such as Holmgren, Dort and Josh Giddey are knocking down their open 3s, Oklahoma City may prove difficult for the Dallas defense — which was very good after the trade deadline.

3) Stat to watch: Thunder fast break points

No team in the first round of the playoffs ran more often than Oklahoma City, and they had a 126 offensive rating when the game started in transition. Dallas was a middle-of-the-road transition defensive team in the regular season and a little worse than that in the first round of the playoffs — Mavericks opponents can often get a 5-on-4 when Doncic stays back to argue a call with the referee.

In a series that promises to close, a few easy transition buckets and a game could be the difference. OKC wants to get out and run, can they do it enough to change games?

Prediction: Thunder in 7

This is a coin-flip of a series, I could easily have picked the Mavericks in six or seven games. It’s not that all the star power will cancel each other out, but whichever team has its role players step up and make plays is who will advance to the Western Conference Finals.