Compared to last August, however, the index is 7.9 percent higher. In March of this year, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February, the index rose to a record 159.7 points.
The cereal price index decreased by 1.4 percent month-on-month in August. This was influenced by the re-opening of Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea following a diplomatic agreement and favorable prospects for the wheat harvest in North America and Russia. But corn prices rose 1.5 percent as hot and dry weather reduced production prospects in Europe and the United States.
Sub-indices of prices for vegetable oils, sugar, dairy products and meat also fell. This is partly due to improved deliveries.
At the same time, the FAO lowered its outlook for cereal production this year to 2.774 billion tons from July’s 2.792 billion tons. This is 1.4 percent less than the estimated production for last year. This is due to the prospect of a weaker corn harvest in the Northern Hemisphere due to the weather. In the EU, revenues are expected to fall below the five-year average by 16 percent.
FAO also expects cereal consumption to outpace production in 2022/2023, leading to a projected 2.1 percent decline in global stocks from 2021/2022 to 845 million tonnes.