Kyiv/Washington/London – The Ukrainian army is demonstrably advancing in the south and east of Ukraine. The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported this last night. According to the constitution, the Ukrainians are advancing in several directions in the west of Kherson Oblast and have also consolidated their positions in the area beyond the North Donets River in Donetsk Oblast. According to the British Ministry of Defence, it is highly unlikely that the Russians will succeed in capturing the rest of the Donetsk region by the middle of this month, as the Kremlin is demanding.
According to ISW, the pace of the counter-offensive in southern Ukraine is likely to “change dramatically from day to day”. Ukrainian forces appear to be seeking to deprive the Russians of supplies, disrupt their command and control operations, and weaken their morale.
“The Russians will occasionally counterattack and regain some of the lost territory, but they will probably carry out heavy artillery and air attacks on liberated villages and advancing Ukrainian troops,” ISW also warns. The institute also noted that Ukraine’s progress has led to “more realistic comments” by Russian military bloggers, who until now have supported the Kremlin’s very optimistic rhetoric.
The British Ministry of Defense in today’s regular report based on information from intelligence services writes that it is “highly unlikely” that Russian forces would achieve the goal of completing the mission in Donbass by September 15, as ordered by the Kremlin. “It is highly unlikely that they will achieve this, which will further complicate Russia’s plans to hold referendums in the occupied territories on joining the Russian Federation,” the British ministry said in a report.
According to London, Russia’s main effort “almost certainly” remains precisely its offensive in Donbass. “The main axes of advance on Donbass continue to be near Avdijivka near the city of Donetsk and 60 kilometers further north around Bakhmut,” confirms the British Ministry of Defence. “Although Russia has had the greatest success in this sector, its forces are advancing towards Bakhmut at a rate of around one kilometer per week,” the British ministry added.
Today, the Southern Command of the Ukrainian Army claims that the 127th Regiment of the Russian 1st Army Corps refused to fulfill its duties due to insufficient support and poor conditions, including a lack of water. According to the Ukrainian military, Russian special forces took action against these soldiers and removed them from their posts. Such information cannot be reliably verified.
Attacks continued over the weekend in the Sumy region in northeastern Ukraine. Local governor Dmytro Žyvyckyj informed that shelling hit the region forty times on Sunday. The area around the village of Znob-Novgorodske suffered the most, where 15 explosions thundered during the day. Russia reportedly shelled the area with artillery shells and damaged the electrical transmission system.
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