On the wage statistics today in industry and foreign trade – Morning window

On the wage statistics today in industry and foreign trade – Morning window
On the wage statistics today in industry and foreign trade – Morning window

Statistics from the industry and data on the balance of foreign trade will arrive from Esk today at 9 am. Both values ​​have fluctuated in recent months, and analysts’ estimates thus diverge from each other quite strongly. A few minutes ago, she received the statistics regarding factory orders for ruddy from Germany. According to them, orders fell by more than a percentage month-on-month, on average by less than 14%. This includes the weak development of the Czech industry. An improved PMI will arrive from the US today, along with the ISM service sector index. The American markets remained closed due to Labor Day, and overall there was calm on the global markets. In the Eurozone, the PMI for services showed a slight correction below 50 points, while retail sales in Ukraine were in line with the forecast. The average wage in the Czech Republic grew by 4.4% in the second quarter, but due to the 16% inflation in the same period, the corresponding decrease in wages by less than 10%.

According to us, the balance of foreign trade reached a deficit of over K 17 billion after the previous K 12.1 billion (market equivalent to K -20.5 billion). On the import side, we expect a further increase in dynamics (nominal) due to high export prices and the complete accumulation of export orders. On the other hand, the negative effect of falling foreign demand. On the other hand, imports then use a nominal pace due to the high prices of imported energy commodities.

Industrial production remained fragmented even in the fourth quarter, when, according to our estimate, it fell by 1.9% between the years. There were also calendar influences, when the industry should be struck in black ears after one day less. In the direction of a better result, the dynamics in the automotive industry, where there have been several problems in the supply chain, will help. On the contrary, domestic industrial production will have a negative effect on manufacturing in the rest of the sectors, which were met with falling demand in the past.

The American ISM index for the services sector should decrease slightly in August, but it will continue to expand above the 50-point mark (market average decreased from 56.7 to 55.4). Uneven development of sectors can be assumed, where the biggest losses are likely to be experienced by industries that meet consumer demand, such as retail, transport or storage. August data from the labor market show, however, that the demand for labor remained strong in the service sector, and a significant decline is not expected. On the contrary, the methodically different PMI for the services sector in the whole market confirmed a decline to 44 points.

Zpt view:

The average wage in the Czech Republic increased by 4.4% in the second quarter above 40,000 K. The price level grew significantly faster and inflation reached 15.8% in the same period. The result is the biggest drop in real wages in this century, by 9.8%. In addition to high inflation, the overall dynamics also had a negative contribution to the high comparative base from last year, which was mainly influenced by the payment of pandemic bonuses in the healthcare sector.

Things in the comments here: https://investice.rb.cz/?c15002[key]=4311

Retail sales in the euro area fell by 0.9% month-on-month, but rose by 0.3% month-on-month. The result was in line with market expectations. A significant month-on-month increase was recorded by the sales of internet sellers, which grew by more than 4%.

Author: Vratislav Zmi, analyst
Editor: David Vagenknecht, Analyst

The article is in Czech

Tags: wage statistics today industry foreign trade Morning window

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