No successes, only Putin will win. Even the supporters of Ukraine admit it

Kemp warns in his commentary for The Telegraph, that winter is slowly starting in Ukraine, which means the front freezes at the current point. “The Ukrainian counter-offensive was intended to achieve a strategic breakthrough against Russian defenses or to cause sufficient depletion of forces to collapse enemy forces while encouraging Western countries to continue their support. This had to be achieved before the winter rains set in and large armored maneuvers could not be carried out. Well, now that period has come, and no dream breakthrough happened before that,” the colonel summarizes the current state of the fighting in Ukraine.

In addition, no major Ukrainian successes are on the horizon, the counter-offensive has been running for more than half a year without major successes. “The counter-offensive has rather reached a deadlock, with no prospect of penetrating the heavily fortified Russian defenses with current military capabilities. And that may still be the case for Ukraine, because Russia is undoubtedly preparing its own offensive against the depleted Ukrainian army,” warns Kemp towards the spring of next year.

The fact that the Ukrainian counter-offensive was not successful, according to Kemp, is mainly the fault of the Western allies, who hesitated too long in providing key weapons and equipment. “However, the hard truth is that the counter-offensive could have been successful if the US and European countries had resisted more forcefully. They failed to do so, providing only enough military aid to keep Ukraine in the fight, but nowhere near enough to ensure victory against such a powerful enemy. Every step was marked by procrastination and unwillingness to provide Ukraine with everything it needed,” Colonel Kemp is clear.

As an example, he cites the indecision of the US in the delivery of ATACMS long-range missiles or F-16 fighters, which were promised, but their delivery is still in sight. Behind this failure was a successful Russian deterrence campaign.

“At a time when boldness was needed, Moscow’s threats to escalate were met with timidity and fear. Washington prioritized its absolute security over a Ukrainian victory. ATACMS is an example of this. Biden feared Putin’s wrath if he supplied Ukraine with weapons that could hit Russian territory. Yet, showing the hollowness of his threats, when ATACMS were first used last month, Putin downplayed them, claiming that the weapons could not change the situation on the front line,” Kemp points out that these are empty threats from the Russian president.

But the slow decision-making on the supply of key weapons has put Ukraine in a desperate situation. The war has been going on for two years, an enormous amount of military equipment has been consumed, a lot of money has been spent, hundreds of thousands of people have died, and there is no result.

“European officials, many of whom were hesitant from the beginning, now have little hope that their military aid will translate into success on the battlefield. They are tired of the war and want to negotiate an agreement with the Kremlin to end it,” says Kemp, adding that the world’s attention has also turned to the Middle East, which is great news for Russia.

“Currently, the world’s attention has shifted from Ukraine to the Middle East, where Russia’s ally Iran is fanning a regional conflagration. Putin’s strategy to weaken Western support for Ukraine could not have been better executed. The consequences of the Middle East conflict are causing growing concern at home, with mass pro-Palestinian protests hitting American and European cities,” continues Colonel Kemp.

Even with regard to the upcoming US presidential elections, the possibility is looming that the Americans will pressure Ukraine to start negotiations with Russia. “What if Biden decides to force Ukraine into a ceasefire by threatening to withhold or limit US support? Few European leaders would have serious objections,” Kemp is clear, adding that in the current state of affairs, only Putin can emerge victorious from the conflict.