Analyst Smetana: The war in Ukraine can become the basis for a geopolitical tragedy in the coming years

Analyst Smetana: The war in Ukraine can become the basis for a geopolitical tragedy in the coming years
Analyst Smetana: The war in Ukraine can become the basis for a geopolitical tragedy in the coming years

“On the other hand, the way China is in this conflict extremely important as a political player, so her attitude helps Russia a lot,” adds the analyst from the Faculty of Social Sciences of Charles University.

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If all these players get together, we have nothing good to look forward to.

“If this scenario were to occur, it would undoubtedly be a huge threat. Both Russia and China are nuclear states, including the DPRK. Moreover, China is better armed in this regard, and at the same time very dramatically expanding its conventional capabilities – that is, when it comes to waging war.”

According to the security analyst, all the strategic documents of the West also count on this. But he has one piece of good news: “The relationship with China has currently improved a bit – or rather compared to last year. Because relations mainly with the United States have calmed down a bit. This gives us the opportunity to breathe easy,” he suggests in the Osobnost Plus program.

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There is also a big “but” here, because everything can change in a moment if there is a conflict in the Pacific region and a “fight” for Taiwan.

“That too is definitely a big threat to work with in the scenarios. I certainly won’t hide that.”

When asked to sum it up and say which of those threats he is most afraid of, he answers: “If it’s just this year, I’m most afraid of what will happen in Ukraine in the area of ​​Western support.” I fear that there may be a basis for a geopolitical tragedy that will happen in the coming years.”

World threats?

According to the words of some heads of Western armies, it looks as if war with Russia is on the way. They usually add that if we want peace, we must prepare for war.

“The security forces have to work with different scenarios, even relatively unlikely, but very threatening for the security of individual states,” he explains.

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“But probably no one is worried that they would in the horizon of days Russia attacked a NATO member state. But there are also scenarios where such a conflict would occur relatively quickly, with the help of some sort of spiral of escalation.”

“We can probably imagine that, for example, a stray missile hits Poland – it’s not so unimaginable for many reasons – it kills a significant number of people there, and Poland responds. So we get into this fast spiral. And there are, of course, other very interesting and unfortunately very tragic scenarios of what would happen if Russia were to win Ukraine.”

“Let’s take the whole thing as NATO has 31, soon 32 member states, which have different priorities, different perceptions of the security situation and are located in different geographical parts of the transatlantic space. And it is not always easy to find a consensus, but NATO does a lot within the scope of what is possible,” concludes the security analyst.

What does he think about placing US nukes in the UK? And is the DPRK a bigger threat today than before? Listen to the audio recording of the Osobnost Plus program by Barbora Tachecí.

The article is in Czech

Tags: Analyst Smetana war Ukraine basis geopolitical tragedy coming years


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