“On the other hand, the way China is in this conflictextremely important as a political player, so her attitude helps Russia a lot,” adds the analyst from the Faculty of Social Sciences of Charles University.
Listen to the entire Personality Plus of Barbora Tachecí
If all these players get together, we have nothing good to look forward to.
“If this scenario were to occur, it would undoubtedly be a huge threat. Both Russia and China are nuclear states, including the DPRK. In addition, Russia and China are better armed in this regard, and at the same time they are expanding their conventional capabilities very dramatically – that is, when it comes to waging war.”
According to the security analyst, all the strategic documents of the West also count on this. But he has one piece of good news: “The relationship with China has currently improved a bit – or rather compared to last year. Because relations mainly with the United States have calmed down a bit. This gives us the opportunity to breathe easy,” he suggests in the Osobnost Plus program.
However, there is a big “but” here too, because everything can change when there is a conflict in the Pacific region and a “fight” for Taiwan.
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“That too is definitely a big threat to work with in the scenarios. I will certainly not hide that,” he admits and adds:
“If it’s just this year, I’m most worried about what will happen in Ukraine in the area of Western support. I fear that there may be a basis for a geopolitical tragedy that will happen in the coming years.”
According to the words of some heads of Western armies, it looks as if war with Russia is on the way. “The security forces have to work with different scenarios, even relatively improbable, but very threatening for the security of individual states,” he explains.
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“But probably no one is worried that they would in the horizon of daysRussia attacked a NATO member state. But there are also scenarios where such a conflict would occur relatively quickly, with the help of some kind of spiral of escalation,” continues Smetana.
“We can probably imagine that, for example, a stray missile hits Poland – it’s not so unimaginable for many reasons – it kills a significant number of people there, and Poland responds. So we get into this fast spiral. And there are, of course, other very interesting and unfortunately very tragic scenarios of what would happen if Russia were to win Ukraine,” he says.
“Let’s take the whole thing as NATO has 31, soon 32 member states, which have different priorities, different perceptions of the security situation and are located in different geographical parts of the transatlantic space. And it is not always easy to find a consensus, but NATO does a lot within the scope of what is possible,” concludes the security analyst.
Listen to the full interview, the audio is at the top of the article.
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