The survey was carried out by the SSRS agency at the end of January. At that time, 49 percent of registered voters wanted to support Trump and 45 percent of people who are registered to vote wanted to support Biden. Another five percent of the votes would go to other candidates.
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Thus, the preferences did not change compared to the previous similar survey from the turn of October and November. However, given the statistical margin of error of around three percent, the difference between Trump and Biden is too narrow to draw clear conclusions.
Niki Haley could beat Biden by an even bigger margin. 52 percent of voters wanted to vote for her at the end of January, and the Republican politician thus improved by three percentage points compared to the previous poll.
Instead, Biden slipped four percentage points to 39 percent. Other candidates would receive seven percent of the vote. Unlike Trump, voters rate Haley more often as a centrist politician.
Negative evaluations of both Biden and Trump prevail among Americans. 59 percent of respondents have an unfavorable opinion of Biden, and Trump is rated negatively by 55 percent of respondents.
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In the case of the current president, the negative rating has increased by five percentage points over the past 12 months, while it has decreased by eight percentage points for Trump. Thus, the main motivation of voters will be to vote against one or the other candidate.
However, in the American presidential elections, it is not the number of votes obtained from citizens that decides, but the number of electors awarded by individual states. Because of this form of indirect election, it can happen that the candidate who did not receive the highest number of votes from the people wins the election.
In 2016, Donald Trump became president, although he had almost three million votes less than the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, and in 2002, George Bush Jr. won more voters than the Democratic candidate Al Gore, who had half a million more votes.
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