A silent battle on a deserted peninsula. It could give Ukrainians major advantages

A silent battle on a deserted peninsula. It could give Ukrainians major advantages
A silent battle on a deserted peninsula. It could give Ukrainians major advantages
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Two weeks after the Russian withdrawal from Kherson, it looks like the fight for the Dnieper may already be underway.

Although the Ukrainian army has not confirmed the landing, it is talking about an ongoing operation on the Kinburn Peninsula, whose long westernmost promontory (the Kinburn Spit) lies about 60 kilometers west of the mouth of the Dnieper River into the Black Sea.

There has been speculation for a long time about direct attacks by Ukrainian soldiers on the salient or other places on the peninsula. The Southern Operations Command of Ukrainian forces indicated this week that the speculation was true. His spokeswoman, Natalija Humenjuková, announced on Monday that “the operation to liberate the Kinburn scythe continues in quiet mode.”

Humenyuková did not specifically mention the landing of Ukrainian soldiers (although many media, including https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1595173019630112782 she no longer doubts their presence on the peninsula) and could safely talk purely about the work of the Ukrainian artillery. After all, even if they mentioned the landings, it doesn’t change the fact that there is no verified evidence of Ukrainian troops fighting on the peninsula yet.

More than a week ago, videos appeared on social networks that allegedly showed Ukrainian special forces heading for the peninsula in boats. However, their authenticity is not confirmed. In addition, the area is sparsely populated, which does not record the spread of news about what is happening on the ground, and observing small detachments of soldiers without heavy equipment is not easy even from publicly available satellite images.

To sum it up: we really know next to nothing about what’s going on in the peninsula. However, the area does not receive undeserved attention in the media and expert debates – an attack by Ukrainian soldiers would make a lot of sense there.

Ukrainians are not giving up after Russian strikes

Russian missiles hit cities across Ukraine again on Wednesday, causing widespread power outages even in neighboring Moldova. But the Ukrainians show their indomitability: even after the previous salvo of rockets, they said that they were ready for anything.

The Kinburn Spit, along with the entire western part of the peninsula, was a popular tourist destination before the war. They were going to the nature park to admire the landscape full of sand dunes, salt plains, forests and swamps. Now it is a strategic area mainly due to its location right next to the only sea route to the Dnieper and South Bug rivers, and thus the ports in Kherson and Mykolaiv.

The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated that the possession of this territory allows the entrances to these rivers and ports to be controlled. He also added that the Russian occupation forces, which incidentally occupied the area only in June, used this place for regular artillery attacks on Ukrainian positions within range, i.e. especially on the nearby port of Ochakov and Mykolaiv itself.

Controlling at least part of the Kinburn Peninsula could thus weaken Russian shelling of Ukrainian positions and clear the way for possible naval operations in the area.

Another possible benefit, according to ISW, could be the acquisition of an “easier route” to the eastern side of the Dnieper, which the think tank reasons by the fact that the Kinburn Spit is not within range of Russian 152mm howitzers, which are ready beyond the Dnieper to repel a possible Ukrainian attempt to cross the river.

The New York Times (NYT) and The Drive server speculate beyond that that the gain of this territory could provide Ukraine with an increase in the range of its own artillery, and thus a chance to disrupt the Russian supply network in occupied Crimea.

But if the Ukrainians wanted to “bypass” the river through the peninsula and launch a more extensive attack on Russian positions beyond the Dnieper, it would not be possible without the use of heavy equipment, which also applies in the case of an attempt to deploy their own artillery in the area. And that would probably be a problem in these places.

Heavy equipment would be difficult not only to get to the site, but also to operate with it. As John Helin, an independent journalist working in Finland, points out, there is only one paved road running through the peninsula. This is complemented by a fairly dense network of dirt roads visible from the aerial map, but you can’t rely on them at this time of year.

Mud took over Ukraine

The breech, which military experts have long warned against, is here. Rasputica is preparing a tough test for both the Ukrainian and Russian forces, who would love to continue their advance, but their technology is struggling with the mud instead.

Helin therefore believes that a major operation involving heavy equipment on the peninsula is unlikely. “Light Ukrainian forces in the area would certainly require Russian attention and may be a way to weaken and tire Russian forces, but it (an attack on the peninsula) is unlikely to pose a real operational threat to the Russians in the southern part of the Kherson region (behind Dnieper),” https://twitter.com/J_JHelin/status/1591988648291237888 Helin on Twitter.

According to him, the possible degree of relief from Russian shelling would depend on how deep the Ukrainians would advance, but the attack could nevertheless “certainly” stop most of the Russian shelling of Mykolaiv.

Mike Martin, a former officer in the British Army and now a researcher at King’s College London, recently expressed his opinion on Twitter. According to him, Ukraine is on the peninsula https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1595171910073126937 “minor raid” and is trying to throw off the Russians, with Zaporozhye Oblast being the most likely place for the next major offensive.


The article is in Czech

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