Even if Ukraine managed to push Russian troops to the border – and that is an increasingly distant prospect – it would not end the war, the media quoted from an interview with a high-ranking Ukrainian military intelligence officer.
Skibicky described the situation on the battlefield as bad as never before. The key is to be this May, when, according to his findings, Russia will launch a massive three-layer plan to destabilize Ukraine. He identified the military factor as the first and most important. According to Skibicky, the second is a Russian disinformation campaign, the aim of which is to slow down mobilization in Ukraine and also to question the political legitimacy of President Volodymyr Zelensky. The regular election period will expire on May 20 (but the constitution allows the extension of the office for an unlimited period during a state of war). The third important point, according to Skibicky, is the Russian effort to get Ukraine into international isolation.
According to him, both Russia and Ukraine are now trying to create an “advantageous position” ahead of potential talks. But, according to him, meaningful negotiations cannot begin before the second half of 2025.
NATO is concerned about Russia’s harmful activities in the Czech Republic and other countries
Europe
At that time, according to him, Russia will face problems – although Moscow’s weapons production capacity has expanded, it will hit a ceiling sometime in early 2026 due to a lack of production materials and engineers.
According to Skibicky, both sides of the war conflict may run into a lack of weapons as a result. Unless other circumstances change, Ukraine will run out first, he said.
The Russians will take the Baltics before NATO reacts
The biggest unknown, according to a representative of Ukrainian military intelligence, is how Europe will behave. If the states neighboring Ukraine do not find a way to increase their own weapons capacities and help Ukraine, they will ultimately find themselves in Russia’s crosshairs, he declared.
In the interview, Skibicky downplayed the importance of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty on collective defense or the presence of NATO troops in countries neighboring Ukraine. “The Russians will take the Baltics in seven days. NATO’s reaction time is ten days,” he claimed.
According to him, it will be crucial if Europe keeps Ukraine in the game. “We will continue to fight. We have no other choice. We want to live. But the outcome of the war (…) does not depend only on us,” he declared.
A Russian drone grabbed both of my legs, I fought near Verbova, a Ukrainian soldier told Novinka
The war in Ukraine
Tags: win militarily negotiate admitted senior representative Ukrainian intelligence
