Wheat prices stabilize at $615 a bushel ahead of tomorrow’s COT report

Chicago wheat futures on the CBOT are still trading in the $615 per bushel zone on concerns about a lack of rain in the wheat-growing regions of the US and Russia and the Black Sea region of the latter country. The latest Commitment of Traders (CoT) reporting to the CFTC (as of April 19, data for April 16, 2024) showed that large speculators were very short on wheat. Tomorrow’s CoT data will show how that changed from April 16-23, as traders expect some large speculators to come under pressure from higher crop prices and need to cover short positions, which may push prices even higher. At the same time, weather forecasts for Kansas, Montana, North Dakota show that rain may be higher in May than in April and often above the 30-year average (especially after May 8).

The expected quality of excellent and very good crops drops from 55% to 50%. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP

Rainfall levels in May may be more favorable for wheat in the most important wheat producing states. Above we can see the data for Kansas. Source: Bloomberg

WHEAT (M30)
WHEAT is up nearly 12% from local lows after the latest reversal. The strongest support is now in the SMA50 line and as long as the price is above this zone, the underlying short-term trend may signal a positive impulse to higher prices.

Source: xSttion5Source: xSttion5!–cleared–>

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