Kremlin clan war threatens Putin’s number two man

With another six years of Vladimir Putin at the head of Russia, which after the rigged elections in March will be inaugurated in a few days, there is room for changes at the highest levels of politics. The ruler of the Kremlin must dissolve the current government and appoint a new one.

There are few indications of what the change in the dictator’s surroundings might look like. In recent days, however, the name of one of the main men of Russian aggression in Ukraine – Sergei Shoigu – has been mentioned.

His position is shaken by the recent arrest of longtime deputy Timur Ivanov, who faces charges of corruption.

Ivanov is the highest-ranking official to face criminal prosecution in Russia since the arrest of ex-Minister of the Economy Alexei Ulyukayev in 2016. At the same time, his corruption cases have been known for a long time because, for example, the anti-corruption fund of the late opposition leader Alexei Navalny drew attention to them.

The timing and circumstances of the arrest thus raise a number of questions. In addition, the Važnyje istorii server came up with the finding that the deputy is actually suspected of treason and the corruption case is only a cover for the public.

However, the scandal in Shoigu’s immediate vicinity shows that disagreements between influential groups competing for power inside the Kremlin (sometimes called clans) are escalating, as The Moscow Times wrote.

Sergei Shoigu has stood by Putin’s side for decades and is aptly sometimes referred to as the number two man.

“Given that Putin likes to publicly cite Defense Ministry press releases about the number of Ukrainian soldiers killed and the amount of military equipment destroyed, the Shoigu clan was expected to maintain its position even with a change of government and perhaps even increase its influence. This prospect seems to have prompted the defense minister’s opponents to launch an urgent offensive, during which they arrested one of the most prominent representatives of the clan,” points out Andrei Pertsev in his analysis for the Carnegie Endowment.

Taťjana Stanovajová, head of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, agrees with this. “Someone from the elite didn’t like that he strengthened Shoigu. It does not come from Putin, but from people who are close to Putin and who think that Shoigu has outplayed them. It’s simply a fight against him and a ministry that has become too powerful. The effort to balance the situation also plays a role,” she told Reuters.

Timur Ivanov’s arrest came just two weeks before Putin’s inauguration and a government reshuffle expected in May. So Shoigu’s place could become vacant without too much attention.

Former Kremlin spokesman Abbas Galyamov, who the authorities now call a “foreign agent”, also believes that the deputy’s arrest is actually an attack on the minister. “Ivanov is one of Shoigu’s closest people. His arrest shortly before the appointment of a new government indicates that the current minister’s chances of staying in office are plummeting,” he noted to Reuters.

Sergei Shoigu

On the other hand, there are a number of reasons why Shoigu will probably not be shut down. He could have lost his position several times. For example, the Russian invasion of Ukraine was supposed to last three days, but after a series of failures it continues to this day. He also withstood the harsh criticism and subsequent rebellion led by the head of the notorious mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Experts do not expect any major changes in the most important posts, as it would divert attention from the leadership of military objectives in Ukraine.

In addition, stability is one of the key parts of the Russian political system, according to Mikhail Vinogradov, founder and president of the St. Petersburg Politics Foundation.

Mikhail Mishustin will probably remain the prime minister, according to Bloomberg sources, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov and the head of the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) Elvira Nabiullinova will also keep their posts.

What does the confirmation of Putin in office mean?

The leadership of the Federal Security Service (FSB) and the Security Council has not changed since 2008, the ministers of defense and interior have been in office since 2012, and the current heads of the presidential administration were appointed in 2016. Mishustin will soon be prime minister longer than Putin ever was.

The last changes that took place in the government took place four years ago and did not affect the most important posts.

The age structure of the government also attracts a lot of attention. The cabinet now mainly consists of the older generation – Shoigu is 68 years old, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is even 74 years old.

However, the generation of Putin’s most loyal allies is slowly being overtaken by more ambitious politicians under the age of 60, such as Mishustin, as Pertsev points out.

The Kremlin’s interest in forming a government is to reach out to an even younger generation. But here the system stumbles, because as a result of its rigidity, it does not have enough young politicians who would be able to replace the existing representatives of top positions.

Putin’s presidential administration has thus launched a series of programs designed to identify and train a new generation of senior leaders, which includes a “reserve list” of 100 candidates, according to Reuters.

But as Pertsev points out, any change will be a blow in the back for those who will lose from it.

“To do nothing is to maintain the status quo and block the promotion of effective officials, so that young regional governors will dream of job opportunities in Moscow. At the same time, deciding to change means exposing the system to additional stress,” agrees Vinogradov.