NHL Playoffs picks, odds: Expert predictions for Stars vs. Golden Knights Game 7, Rangers vs. Hurricanes Game 1

From a purely subjective point of view the Dallas Stars–Vegas Golden Knights series has been some of the best hockey in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs in terms of pace of play, quality of play and just how competitive it has been. Not only is it going to a Game 7 on Sunday evening, but the two teams have been separated by just a single goal on aggregate.

Game 6 on Friday night, which Vegas won to force Game 7, was one of the most frantic and chaotic 1-0 games (2-0 with an empty-netter) you will ever see at the NHL level.

All of that makes sense when you consider these are two of the best teams in the league on paper. Dallas is as deep as any team in the league with high-end talent at the top of the lineup, while Vegas is the defending Stanley Cup champions and is finally healthy after getting Mark Stone back in the lineup and loading up at the trade deadline. Both teams should be among the top three or four favorites to win it all this season, but only one of them is going to get an opportunity to move on to the second round.

The fascinating thing about this series so far is that for as close as it has been, and for as evenly matched as it appears on the scoreboard, there is strong evidence to suggest that Dallas is carrying most of the play, especially at even-strength . The Stars are averaging 2.91 expected goals per 60 minutes (second best in the playoffs), and have controlled more than 57 percent of the total expected goals (also second best in the playoffs). They are also doing that against one of the league’s best teams.

There are two important things to keep in mind when it comes to a winner-take-all game, however.

The first is that Vegas is getting exceptional goaltending in the series to help keep the Stars from turning those chances into goals, while Vegas has slowly started to turn the tide a little over the past two games. Games 5 and 6 of the series were the first two where Vegas had the better of the expected goal share, topping 55 percent in both games.

Both teams have reason to believe they not only could, but perhaps should win this game, and both are among the best teams in hockey. It is going to set the stage for what could be an epic series deciding game.

Here’s a look at that Game 7 and the series opener between the New York Rangers and the Carolina Hurricanes.

Odds are from BetMGM and update live. Buy tickets to see your favorite team on StubHub.

Carolina Hurricanes at New York Rangers — Game 1

How to watch: 4 p.m. ET on ESPN, SN

Series odds: Hurricanes -155, Rangers +130

The Hurricanes allowed just four goals to the Rangers in the three regular season meetings and actually owned a 7-4 goals advantage in the head-to-head games. But the Rangers won two of the three games by margins of 2-1 and 1-0.
Carolina has the far more dominant 5-on-5 numbers both during the regular season and in the first round of the playoffs. The Hurricanes, however, tend to underperform those numbers while the Rangers consistently overperform theirs. The Hurricanes are first in the NHL in shot attempt share in the playoffs and fourth in expected goal share. They were first and second in the NHL during the regular season. The Rangers are 11th and 14th in the playoffs and were 19th and 22nd during the regular season. (Numbers via Natural Stat Trick)
The Rangers have to get to the power play as that is one of their two big advantages in any matchup. Their power play was third-best in the NHL during the regular season at 26.4 percent while it has been even more efficient in the playoffs at 37.5 percent.
Since February 1 Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin has a 21-5-1 record in 27 starts with a .930 save percentage. That will mask a lot of flaws and help them over perform their analytics. That is also the Rangers other big advantage.
Seth Jarvis has been the big breakout star for the Hurricanes this season, and after scoring 33 goals in the regular season (second on the team) he has a team-best seven points (three goals and four assists) going into the second round.

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Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars — Game 7

How to watch: 7:30 p.m. ET on TBS, Sun

Series tied 3-3

Goaltending has mostly ruled the day here. All three goalies that have appeared (Dallas’ Jake Oettinger, Vegas’ Adin Hill and Logan Thompson) all have save percentages over .920 in the series.
The Stars are basically playing this series with only five defensemen as Nils Lundkvist has logged just 29 total minutes in the six games, or about 4:46 per game. That has put a heavy workload on the Stars’ top-pairing where Miro Heiskanen has played 27:36 per game.
Power plays probably won’t play a huge role in this game, not only because whistles tend to get put away in Game 7s, but because there have only been 24 total power plays in the first six games of the series. It has been one of the least penalized series of the first round.
Having said that, both power plays have been very successful when they have been on the ice with Vegas converting on 27.3 percent of its opportunities, and Dallas converting on 30.8 percent of its opportunities. Both units are performing. They just may not get many chances on Sunday.
In Game 7 history in the NHL, home teams win about 58 percent of the time, while the team that scores first wins 75 percent of the time (including a 4-0 record in the 2023-24 Stanley Cup Playoffs).