The second round of the presidential election will be the closest in history iRADIO

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Research agencies see the second round of the Slovak presidential election as an extremely close fight without a clear favorite. According to the NMS Market Research model, ex-foreign minister Ivan Korčok would win with the support of 51.7 percent. 48.3 percent of the respondents would vote for his rival and Speaker of the Parliament Peter Pellegrini. Median SK and Focus agencies, however, measured a smaller difference between the two and their order was reversed. The Ipsos agency then measured almost a draw.



Updated
Bratislava
10:59 am 3/4/2024 (Updated: 14:15 03/04/2024)

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Focus and NMS Market Research agencies published their polls on Tuesday evening, Median SK for the public broadcaster RTVS and Ipsos for Denník N on Wednesday. The remaining AKO agency has until midnight, as a 48-hour pre-election moratorium applies from Thursday.

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All four agencies found minimal differences between the two finalists. While Focus and Median SK slightly favor Pellegrini and the difference between the two candidates is 1.6 and 2.2 percentage points respectively, according to NMS Market Research Korčok is ahead and the difference is 3.4 percentage points. In the Ipsos model, the result was 50.1 percent for Korčok and 49.9 percent for Pellegrini, so it is practically a tie.

In all cases, it is a difference within the statistical deviation, so it is not possible to say based on the data who is the bigger favorite.

“The fight for the future president will be the closest in history, and every vote can really decide,” Peter Pellegrini urges his supporters on social networks.

He also shared a Focus poll that favors him very closely.

Korčok, on the other hand, boasted on his Facebook about the result of the agency NMS Market Research, whose model for the second round again narrowly favors him. “According to the latest survey, we have overtaken Petr Pellegrini for the first time. The result is therefore in our hands,” he said.

The NMS model is actually the first of about two dozen models of the battle between Korčok and Pellegrini, which Slovak research agencies have measured between this duo of favorites since last fall, and the ex-foreign minister wins. On Wednesday, the Ipsos model joined him, but due to the miniature difference, it can be considered a tie rather than Korčok’s leadership.


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NMS analyst Mikuláš Hanes said that Korčok managed to convince those voters who did not participate in the first round of the presidential elections in March. Korčok won this round with an unexpectedly high lead of almost 124,000 votes just ahead of Pellegrini.

The model also measures a higher voter base for Korčok, 37.3 percent of supporters are convinced of his election, while Pellegrini’s is 33.5 percent.

The NMS model also showed that Pellegrini succeeds in mobilizing the voters of the failed presidential candidate Štefan Harabin. He finished third in the first round, receiving over 264,000 votes. About three-quarters of them are going to the second round, and 93 percent should vote for Pellegrini.

The director of the Ipsos agency Jakub Hankovský described for Denník N that the favorite of the second round will probably not be known even after all the published surveys and models. “The differences are small and we have never had such a close fight.”

Otherwise, the second rounds of the Slovak presidential elections tend to be rather clear affairs. The closest fight was in 2009 between Ivan Gašparovič and Iveta Radičová, which the then president won with 55.5 percent of the vote. In absolute terms, it was a difference of over 160,000 votes.

Jakub Grim

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The article is in Czech &&

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