According to his medallion, Konrad Muzyka studied Russia at UCL (University College London) and is currently an independent security analyst. He regularly comments on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. According to him, the situation is currently bad and improvement is not expected in the coming weeks. “There are three reasons for the current state of affairs, and in principle it is nothing new, because the problems on the Ukrainian side have been known for a long time: lack of ammunition, people, fortifications,” says Muzyka, elaborating on the situation regarding the lack of ammunition by observing that some artillery units since the summer counteroffensive in 2023 they shoot 70 to 90% less. Artillery fire is limited to a minimum, it even has to be authorized by brigade commanders.
As for the US aid that was recently approved, it is essential, according to the analyst, but will only reduce the disparity; there is no question of her equaling him. They say it will not change the course of the war, it will only delay the problems.
“We continue to wait for long-term and systemic solutions, both from the US and European sides, and for the presentation of a concrete plan for military support to Ukraine in this war, which would allow it to focus on planning (together with Western advisers) and leading the front lines operations to restore the initiative,” the analyst noted.
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The news for Ukraine is not positive for fortifications either. “The start of the construction of the fortifications has been delayed. In connection with emerging reports of possible Russian attacks in the direction of Chernihiv, Sum and Kharkiv, Kyiv was faced with the dilemma of which area to choose as a priority,” says Muzyka, adding that in the areas where Russia is attacking, i.e. near Pokrovsk and Konstantinivka, there are no fortifications from satellite images are not visible. “The Ukrainians seem to have focused on building points of resistance, but they are vulnerable to the circling maneuvers that are already taking place. It remains to be hoped that further fortifications are also being built in the depths of the Donetsk region,” he comments.
But what, according to the analyst, will have the biggest impact is the lack of soldiers. Especially in the next three to four months. “During this time, newly mobilized soldiers will begin to appear at the front, but there is also the possibility that in the event of a Russian breakthrough or a lack of reserves, their training time will be reduced to a minimum. In that case, Ukraine could find itself in the same situation as Russia in September 2022,” says Konrad Muzyka, adding that currently Ukraine is patching holes in its defense by moving troops from other directions. But even that will be difficult due to the losses.
“We have reached the point where the situation on the front is the worst since March 2022. The numerical superiority of the Russians is still growing, and with it the number of attacks. Ukraine has not survived its darkest hour. It has only just begun,” Muzyka ends her analysis on a dark note.
The lack of soldiers has led to changes in Ukraine’s mobilization law, which not only lowers the age limit, but also makes Ukraine no longer provide consular services to its citizens of draft age abroad. some countries such as Poland whose Lithuania is already showing willingness send Ukrainian men back.
But as the British The Telegraph reports, Ukrainians abroad are not going back to their homeland. For example, 39-year-old Vladimir got his ex-wife and four-year-old son from Ukraine at the beginning of the conflict, but he himself stayed in the country due to the laws. But after two years and after being found medically unfit, he decided to return to his family in Germany. He reasoned that a child needs a father.
But because of the new law, he is in danger of staying abroad, because he would have to go to Ukraine to get a new passport and risk conscription. He’s not going to come back. He said it was a morally difficult decision, but he came to the conclusion that the family needed him. “I don’t feel any pressure from family or friends to come back. All my friends understand my situation,” he stated. He added that his passport is still valid and mentioned that for some refugees it is an insult if, for example, they are from Mariupol and the Russians destroyed their home. “And now their own government is picking on them,” he complained.
Other Ukrainians abroad also told the newspaper that they have no plans to return to Ukraine. Construction worker Volodymyr has been living in the Czech Republic for 8 years and says the law is unfair. “And all my Ukrainian friends from the Czech Republic, Lutsk and Kyiv think so too. It doesn’t make anyone happy. The government forces us and with such laws we will say goodbye to it. We will get citizenship in another country,” he said.
“People won’t come back. The longer the war goes on, the more such laws there are, and the more people hate Ukraine and its government. Why should I come back to fight? For what? Why didn’t the government take care of working migrants like me before the war?” asks Mr. Volodymyr, saying that Ukraine has less and less land and less and less people every day. Some died, others, for example, swam across the Tisza to Hungary.
One Ukrainian found out that he left the country illegally and now lives in far away Indonesia. He stated that he felt no obligation to fight for the country and saw himself more as an observer of the war than a participant in it.
Even the soldiers, according to the Telegraph, are not happy. Nikita Rozhenko from the 113th Brigade agrees with the criticism of Ukrainians abroad. According to him, it is not normal to tell those who left Ukraine that they are no longer Ukrainians. On the contrary, it is said that returnees need to be welcomed. He described the law as a political compromise to satisfy everyone and satisfy no one.
The Telegraph reports that Roženko lost an eye in the first year of the conflict, but is still classified as fit for duty and will not be demobilized. According to him, the ideal soldier should be between the ages of 27 and 30, but conscripted soldiers are on average 45 to 50 years old, are from the social periphery and often have health problems. The doctors find them serviceable, but the commanders see their condition. According to him, it would help if people could choose which units they would serve in. People, for understandable reasons, do not want to serve in units where the command views them as “meat”. He did not name Rozhenko, but said that the soldiers know well which commanders are good and which are bad.
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Ukraine (War in Ukraine)
Reports from the battlefield are difficult to verify in real time, regardless of whether they come from any side of the conflict. Both warring parties, for understandable reasons, may release completely or partially false (misleading) information.
PL editorial content discussing this conflict can be found on this page.
war in Ukraine
Reports from the battlefield are difficult to verify in real time, regardless of whether they come from any side of the conflict. Both warring parties, for understandable reasons, may release completely or partially false (misleading) information.
You can find brief information regarding this conflict updated by ČTK several times an hour on this page. PL editorial content discussing this conflict can be found on this page.
author: Karel Šebesta
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