The sale of electric cars is increasing worldwide, in 2024 every fifth newly purchased car could be emission-free, and even every fourth in Europe, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts. If things continue like this, internal combustion engines will naturally die out in 2035.
Such a prediction is quite a surprise for analysts. “Low margins, fluctuating prices of battery materials, high inflation as well as the gradual termination of various subsidy supports in some countries have raised concerns about the growth rate of electromobility,” explain the authors of the study. But the fears were not confirmed – the statistical data of global sellers claim the opposite.
In the first quarter of 2024, sales of electric cars even increased by a quarter compared to last year, which corresponds to the development of previous periods. This year, the market share of electromobility could therefore reach 45 percent in China, 25 percent in Europe and 11 percent in the United States. The reasons for the growth are relatively low prices, the competitiveness of companies and continued support from states and municipalities.
The year 2023 has so far been a record year for electromobility, with almost 14 million new battery cars sold and accounting for 18 percent of all cars sold. On average, a quarter of a million electric cars were sold per week, which is the same figure as how many electric cars were sold in all of 2013.
Breakthrough year 2035
According to IEA estimates, the turning point will be 2035. According to the current goals and plans of most world policies, this is the time when every newly sold car should be electric. If all national targets are met on time and states meet their commitments, two-thirds of all cars sold in 2035 should be electric. The remaining third counts with the existing fleet of internal combustion engines, which will shrink over time.
The development of batteries, which is key to the wider development of electromobility, is also thriving. A component that was once a weakness is now becoming a sophisticated technology. For the first time, production supply exceeded consumer demand and opens up opportunities for the supply chain in the future.
“China still supplies the cheapest batteries, but prices across regions are converging as batteries have become a globalized commodity,” the IEA website describes. It is also gradually switching to significantly cheaper lithium-iron-phosphate batteries, which already account for 40 percent of global sales. This is also the reason for further price reductions. And in the future, new knowledge and the ability to use sodium for battery purposes could bring further reductions.
The Czech Republic remains conservative, we have to wait for used cars
In Europe, electric cars are still more expensive than cars of the same type with an internal combustion engine, in various cases by 10 to 50 percent, this is also the reason for the weaker market. By contrast, in China, electric cars are roughly 60 percent cheaper than their combustion alternatives.
However, the European and American markets are simultaneously marked by the fact that most new electric cars belong to the category of SUVs, pickups or sports cars, and thus their price is generally more expensive. The IEA predicts that prices in Europe will equalize around 2030.
Tip: The electromobility market is on the rise, the fear of battery degradation has not been confirmed
Compared to the rest of the European market, the Czech Republic remains conservative, with roughly 22.5 thousand electric cars plying the road. However, interest is growing rapidly, over 8,000 cars were registered last year alone, reports the Čistá doprava website. The share of newly registered cars thus increased from two percent to three. Compared to the statistics of the European Union, we are third from the bottom, only Slovakia and Croatia remain behind us.
We have already written about the used car market on Obnovitelná.cz. According to the experience of AURES holding, there is interest in used electric cars and their offer is slowly increasing as their market share expands. “We surpassed the original goal of reaching a ten percent share of the secondary market and finally reached 12.3 percent,” company co-director Petr Vaněček revealed last year.
The estimates are also confirmed by the IEA, the trend in the world is similar to ours. “Used electric car prices are falling rapidly and are becoming competitive with combustion engine equivalents. In the future, we expect an increase in the international trade in used electric vehicles outside of China as well,” comment the authors of the study.
Dependence on chargers
One of the brakes on the faster development of electromobility is insufficient charging capacity. Even that is gradually changing. In 2023, the number of fast charging stations has increased by 40 percent and is being installed in even higher numbers than traditional slow charging stations. Nevertheless, most of the charging takes place in private – from home sockets and photovoltaics or in company garages.
Freight, heavy and mass transport is also waiting for its electric future. In 2023, electric buses accounted for three percent of total bus sales. Interest in electric trucks is soaring, with sales up 35 percent, but still only a fraction of them are on the road, a total of 1.5 percent in Europe and 3 percent in China.
If states meet their commitments and national targets, the number of electric trucks should increase 30-fold by 2035, prompting carriers to expand charging capacity everywhere in Europe and the United States.
When electric cars have a sufficiently large range, charging stations will be widespread and available practically everywhere, and car prices will realistically compete with combustion alternatives, nothing stands in the way of the development of electric mobility. This is also why the IEA assumes that in 2035 combustion engines will practically no longer be on sale.
Photo: Freepik
Tags: wont find incinerator anymore IEA estimates Electric cars sweeping market
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