ANO would win the elections in March, ODS would finish second. Support for non-parliamentary parties is growing

The ANO movement would win the parliamentary elections in March with 32 percent of the votes, the second ODS would have 14 percent, and the third Pirates would be voted for by 10.5 percent of the people. The SPD with seven percent and the STAN movement with six percent would also pass the lower house. Of the current parliamentary parties, the People’s Party and TOP 09 would remain outside the lower chamber. At the same time, support for political groups that are now outside the Chamber of Deputies is growing. This follows from the election model, which was published on the website by the agency Median on Wednesday. Willingness to participate in the election against the February survey rose slightly to 62.5 percent.

“The March data shows voter fatigue with parliamentary parties, which is manifested by relatively higher support for parties outside the Chamber of Deputies. An increase in support was recorded by KSČM, PRO 2022, Přísaha, Zelení and Trikolora,” said the authors of the survey. According to them, the shift is probably the result of the beginning campaign before the elections to the European Parliament.

Support for ANO and the Pirates changed only slightly. Compared to the February Median model, it increased by a percentage point for ANO and fell by half a percentage point for the Pirates. The STAN movement did not maintain February’s nine percent support. “ODS continues to strengthen at the expense of its coalition partners,” Median reported. Of the parties that formed a Spolu coalition with the ODS before the last parliamentary elections, TOP 09 and the People’s Party would each get 3.5 percent of the vote in March. “TOP 09 would be outside the Chamber of Deputies for the first time since April 2023,” the authors of the survey noted.

According to Median, the SPD, whose support fell by 2.5 percentage points compared to February, is losing mainly to PRO 2022 and the Tricolor. PRO 2022 would be chosen by four percent of voters in March, and Trikolor by two percent. The KSČM and Social Democracy (SOCDEM) would receive 4.5 percent each, the model gives 3.5 percent to the Přísaha movement and three percent to the Green Party.

The parties of the current government coalition, i.e. ODS, TOP 09, People’s Party, STAN and Pirates, have the support of 37.5 percent of potential voters in total, the authors of the survey said. Without forming pre-election coalitions, they would have won 88 out of 200 parliamentary seats.

The voting potential of ANO, which is a hypothetical gain if all those who seriously consider its choice and do not rule out participation in the elections would vote for the party, rose again and amounted to 41.5 percent in March. The electoral core of ANO, i.e. votes from firmly decided voters of the given party who are also sure of participating in the elections, is stagnating at 24.5 percent, but it is higher than the potential of any of the other parties.

The electoral potential of ODS is 21 percent, Pirates 18.5 percent, STAN 14.5 percent and SOCDEM 12 percent. The Electoral Core has the highest ODS after ANO with 9.5 percent. They are followed by the Pirates with 5.5 percent, the SPD with 3.5 percent, and STAN and the Communists with the electoral core of 2.5 percent.

“Willingness to participate in the elections increased slightly compared to the last survey,” Median said. According to their statement, 53 percent of respondents would definitely participate in the elections to the House of Representatives in March, and another 9.5 percent are considering participation. Certainly 30 percent of survey participants would not go to the polls, rather 7.5 percent would not go.

Median polled 1,041 people aged 18 and over between March 5 and April 3. The statistical error is 1.5 percentage points for smaller parties and up to three percentage points for the strongest parties.