ANO leads, ODS strengthens at the expense of coalition partners, support for parties outside the chamber grows, survey shows

WITHthe ANO movement would win the silent election in March with 32 percent of the votes, the second ODS would have 14 percent and the third would be the Pirates with 10.5 percent of the people voting. The SPD with seven percent and the STAN movement with six percent would also pass the lower house. Of the current parliamentary parties, the People’s Party and TOP 09 would remain outside the lower chamber. At the same time, support for political groups that are now outside the Chamber of Deputies is growing. This follows from the election model, which was published by the Median agency on its website on Wednesday. Willingness to participate in the election against the February survey rose slightly to 62.5 percent.

“The March data shows voter fatigue with parliamentary parties, which is manifested by relatively higher support for parties outside the Chamber of Deputies. An increase in support was recorded by KSČM, PRO 2022, Přísaha, Zelení and Trikolora,” said the authors of the survey. According to them, the shift is probably the result of the beginning campaign before the elections to the European Parliament.

Support for ANO and the Pirates changed only slightly, rising by a percentage point for ANO and half a percentage point for the Pirates compared to the February Median model. The STAN movement did not maintain February’s nine percent support. “ODS continues to strengthen at the expense of its coalition partners,” Median reported. Of the parties that formed a Spolu coalition with the ODS before the last parliamentary elections, TOP 09 and the People’s Party would each get 3.5 percent of the vote in March. “TOP 09 would be outside the Chamber of Deputies for the first time since April 2023,” the authors of the survey noted.

According to Median, the SPD, whose support fell by 2.5 percentage points compared to February, is losing mainly to PRO 2022 and the Tricolor. PRO 2022 would be chosen by four percent of voters in March, and Trikolor by two percent. The KSČM and Social Democracy (SOCDEM) would receive 4.5 percent each, the model gives 3.5 percent to the Přísaha movement and three percent to the Green Party.

The parties of the current government coalition, i.e. ODS, TOP 09, People’s Party, STAN and Pirates, have the support of 37.5 percent of potential voters in total, the authors of the survey said. Without forming pre-election coalitions, they would have won 88 out of 200 parliamentary seats.

“Willingness to participate in the elections increased slightly compared to the last survey,” Median said. According to their statement, 53 percent of respondents would definitely participate in the elections to the House of Representatives in March, and another 9.5 percent are considering participation. Certainly 30 percent of survey participants would not go to the polls, rather 7.5 percent would not go.

Median polled 1,041 people aged 18 and over between March 5 and April 3. The statistical error is 1.5 percentage points for smaller parties and up to three percentage points for the strongest parties.