Photo: Jan Beneš, ceskyhokej.cz
During the Tipsport extraleague season, we brought predictions for the entire season and individual matches. You can also look forward to a similar amount of numbers from the domestic ice hockey world championship, which will take place tomorrow.
While a lot of variables enter the prediction model for the Tipsport extraliga, for a short-term tournament in the form of the World Cup, this model is much simpler. The role is mainly played by the scoring performances of the players in the last two seasons, with significant consideration of the last year. And the evaluation of the national team in the IIHF ranking also comes into play.
From this point of view, the background of the predictions of the World Cup itself is relatively simple, but in the past years it has celebrated quite considerable success. And this is mainly due to the success of the outsiders, when during the World Cup, bookmakers trust the favorites of the tournament and individual matches much more than these predictions.
Unlike the extra league predictions, this time only 10,000 simulations of the remaining part of the WC are taking place. And they can sometimes lead to interesting results. The teams’ chances for individual placements or winning a medal are given by percentages precisely in relation to the total number of simulations.
After a light introductory presentation of what can be expected from the predictions of the WC in ice hockey, let’s go to the specific numbers of this year’s championship.
WC 2024 predictions
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The Czech Republic has relatively tough opponents in Group A. Traditionally, Canada will be one of the biggest favorites, Switzerland has put together a very strong team this year, and Finland will be dangerous as always. In group B, on the other hand, in addition to the United States of America and Sweden, another team from that group of the best and most successful is missing.
From the point of view of the quarter-finals, it will probably be key for the Czech Republic to get one of the first two places in its group. However, the road there will not be easy at all. After Canada and Switzerland, the Czech Republic is the third candidate in the ranking in the first two places, while the prediction gives the home selection a slightly higher chance than Finland. At the same time, Canada is the clear favorite to top the group, with a chance of just over 50%.
In Group B, the United States and Sweden will battle it out for first place, as these two teams are clearly the biggest candidates to occupy the first and second places in the group. Placement in the groups and the strength of the individual groups also play a role in the playoffs.
Where to look for favorites for the world title?
While both the USA and Sweden will most likely go from any spot to the next strong team, such a battle can be avoided in the group. Even if the teams of Canada, the USA or Sweden are balanced, the final result favors the representatives of the maple leaf the most.
In the prediction of hokeki.cz, Canada is the biggest favorite with a chance of 24%, which means a calculated odds of 4.24. It is followed by the USA with a 22% chance (odds 4.63) and Sweden with an 18% chance of the title (odds 5.53).
The betting office Tipsport favors this three-leaf clover at odds of 4.10. It follows from this that it is not worth betting on the win of this trio from the point of view of this prediction.
The Czech Republic can then be included in the next group of favorites, together with Switzerland and Finland, i.e. two rivals from the group. Our prediction places Switzerland as the fourth favorite with a chance of 10% and odds of 10.32. Tipsport offers odds of 10 on Switzerland’s gold medal.
The Czech Republic’s chances are eight percent, and Finland’s seven percent, when the betting office Tipsport places both of these teams above Switzerland.
Both in our prediction and in the odds, Slovakia and Germany follow as other more relevant favorites. The chances of the rest of the teams are already moving practically in units, so it doesn’t make much sense to pay attention to them.
While the last World Championships have been more open, this year it looks like the medal contenders will be recruited from a narrower pool, with the USA and Sweden in particular, but also traditionally Canada, fielding very strong selections. How will the Czech team fare in this competition?
What can you look forward to next?
From Friday, thanks to our WC predictions, we will also bring you predictions for individual matches, especially those of the Czech team! And we’ll keep updating the overall predictions as well.
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