Two winters and enough. Catastrophic estimates of gas prices are perhaps a thing of the past

WITHduring spring, the winter season came to an end, and this also applies to gas cylinders. Starting this week, gas will gradually increase. And so the balance sheet is easy.

The last two winters were marked by warnings about the gas situation. By 2022, prices were astronomical, and there were relevant concerns that there might be a shortage of gas. In the end, the situation got worse, and at the end of the year, prices fell almost to normal. There were still those who expected a dramatic escalation of the situation. For example, Goldman Sachs analysts still predicted 2023 gas prices at around 200 euros per megawatt hour, five times the price at which gas was ultimately sold in this period. The reality was, of course, completely different: Europe enacted winter with record numbers, and prices fell accordingly.

This meant that the situation before this winter looked much better to her. Even so, we could have been warned that the winter would not be as good as the last one, and prices would rise sharply again. The result? At the end of winter, gas reserves set a new record of approximately two-thirds full capacity. It is true that the winter was really warm this year, but even if it was very hard, instead of record temperatures, we would only have average temperatures. Prices would remain around current values ​​anyway.

A simple explanation follows from this. Concerns about gas resources were misplaced. In the fall of 2022, when Europe managed to fully fill the reservoirs, it should be clear to us that Europe has adapted to the new situation. Someone will argue with me that this is too much of a general’s view after a battle. This bag does not apply to summer and winter. For example, the International Energy Agency’s analysis of gold 2023 showed that even the combination of a harsh winter, the complete end of supplies from Russia and weak world supply would not lead to a critical drop in reserves. Let’s hope that two winters of few warnings will be enough before next winter we won’t have warning headlines. And if they do, they will happily ignore them.