Bruins vs. Maple Leafs Game 7 expert picks, odds: Will Toronto finally win a decisive playoff game?

When the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs meet in Game 7 of their first round series on Saturday night, there will be more than just a spot in the second round and a matchup with the Florida Panthers on the line. Reputations will be on the line. Narratives will be on the line.

While that might sound a little overdramatic, over the top and some low-hanging sports talk fruit, it is hard to reach any other conclusion. Neither of these teams can afford a loss in this game, and whichever team does lose is going to leave itself wide open to scathing criticism for continuing to fall short in big moments.

For Toronto, the narrative here is simple. This current core group has lost in the first round in six of the past seven seasons, has consistently lost in Game 7s and has never done anything meaningful in the playoffs despite its highly-paid, highly-skilled core group players. They have also been unable to beat Boston in these big games.

Another loss would be seven first round exits in eight years without ever having a truly dominant regular season performance, and would just add another brutal defeat at the hands of a divisional rival that has consistently bullied them and been better than them. It would only add to the questions and criticisms that have followed and haunted the organization for the better part of the past decade.

For Boston, which is all of a sudden facing the most pressure in this series, it is trying to avoid losing a 3-1 series lead in back-to-back seasons with what would be a second consecutive Game 7 loss on home ice.

What makes this one even more stunning than last year’s series is that Boston has missed opportunities to close out the series in back-to-back games while facing a Toronto team that has changed goalies (Ilya Samsonov to Joseph Woll) and has not had its best player (Auston Matthews). It has continued what is now a six-game losing streak (over the past three seasons) for the Bruins in potential close-out games. Extending that streak to a seventh game and losing to a flawed, Matthews-less Maple Leafs team is the type of thing that could prompt major organizational changes in the offseason.

There is always pressure in a Game 7, but given the recent history of these two franchises that pressure is going to get turned up to an extra level on Saturday night.

Odds are from BetMGM and update live. Buy tickets to see your favorite team on StubHub.

Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins — Game 7

How to watch: 8 p.m. ET on ABC, SN

Series tied 3-3

The Bruins have lost six straight games where they had a chance to advance. That stretch includes a Game 7 loss to Carolina in the first round of the 2022 playoffs, three consecutive games against Florida in the first round of the 2023 playoffs and Games 5 and 6 in the first round in these playoffs against Toronto.
The Maple Leafs have their own streak of playoff futility they are trying to snap having lost five consecutive Game 7s going back to the 2012-13 playoffs. Three of those Game 7 losses have come against the Bruins (2013, 2018, 2019).
William Nylander’s return has been a huge game-changer for the Maple Leafs. They are 2-1 since his return while he has scored two goals and he has helped the Maple Leafs have a 56 percent expected goals share during 5-on-5 play when he is on the ice and outscore the Bruins by a 3-0 margin in those minutes.
The Bruins have started painfully slow in each of the past two games, getting outshot by a combined 23-3 margin (and 21-2 during 5-on-5 play) in the first period. They have looked tentative and not been able to establish their game early on, forcing them to chase the game each night. They can’t have that happen again.
Penalties tend to disappear in Game 7, so that will make the small number of power plays that do happen all the more important. Toronto is just 1-for-20 on the man-advantage in this series while the Bruins have converted on six of their 15 opportunities.