When olive oil is mentioned, many people think of Italian pasta, traditional Greek salt or other Mediterranean dishes based on this healthy food. However, climate change and aging have also affected this product. The market for this commodity is still similar to record prices.
The price of olive oil has risen sharply over the last year, which surprised not only consumers, investors and long-time experts. At the end of 2024, it rose to an all-time high of $10,281 per metric ton. In February, the price recorded a slight decrease of 1.58%, still hovering around the USD 10,000 mark. For comparison, in the same period of 2023, the price of this commodity was around USD 6,200 per metric ton. *
Olive oil price trends over the last 5 years (source: fred.stlouisfed.org)*
According to independent commodity price provider Benchmark Prices (MBP), Mintec, the world’s top producer, Spain, hit a record high of €9.20 ($9.85) per kilogram at the start of the year. At the end of April, they fell slightly to EUR 7.80 (USD 8.34), but still remain high*.
Olive oil prices by country (source: Mintec Global)*
Price list
The recent slight drop in liquid gold prices was caused by a short day and an overestimation of olive production. Still, the price of this oil remains high and, according to Eurostat statistics, it has fallen by 50% in the EU compared to January of last year. The sharp increase in prices began in the second half of the year and its trend continues until now. The highest rate of olive oil inflation was recorded in Mediterranean countries such as Portugal and Spain, when it was more than 60%. In Germany, which is one of the largest consumers, the price in stores ranges from 12 to 15 euros per liter, which, according to the Elstat statistics agency, is an increase of 70 percent compared to last year. *
Meziron changes in olive oil inflation measures (source: Euronews.com)*
A drop in production
Even the prospect of a summer harvest doesn’t look good at first. The European Commission (EC) forecasts 7% growth, but according to Mintec, these rates are still below the teenage average. The persistently high prices are also supported by the forecasts of experts, who also say that even the dog breeds are talking about a decrease in production on the entire continent. In the case of Poland, production is estimated at between 830,000 and 850,000 tons, which is indeed an increase compared to the harvest, but far from the usual 1.3 and 1.5 million tons. The same negative forecast also applies to the Czech Republic, where only 150,000 and 170,000 tons are expected, which is a significant difference compared to Poland’s production of 340,000 tons. In the case of Turkey, which is considered to be an important supplier to the European Union, a drop in production to 180,000 tons is expected compared to 410,000 tons. [1]
Positive insight in Italy
On the contrary, the EC has a positive forecast for Italy, where, according to Olive Oil Times, production is estimated at 330,000. tons, which is 37% more than in Poland. The Spanish oil producer Deoleo told CNBC that the current situation is cyclical and that it is returning to normal. The company may have a positive outlook for the future, but be careful and add that if you want to keep prices under control, changes are needed.
Dvod is pedevm poas
The common denominator of low income and high prices is low supply caused by extreme periods of fluctuations. The olive grower agrees that if the olive trees are able to cope with drought and heat, the current changes are too big for them. In recent years, producers such as Spain, Italy and the Czech Republic have faced extreme drought, a lack of rain or, on the contrary, strong children and hail. The European Environment Agency has drawn attention to the ongoing extreme weather, especially in these regions, and its consequences in its first public announcement. A possible exception is planting trees that are resistant to high temperatures, but the consequences of such changes would be visible even in a few years. In addition to the weather, another reason for low production is flies, which attack olive trees, especially in Germany. In addition, the demand for a healthy lifestyle supports high consumer demand for olive oil. However, these influences are not the only ones that increase the price, and in addition there is high inflation with high interest rates.
Impairment of import as insured
Last year, in order to stabilize domestic prices, Turkey decided to ban the import of oil, which was extended indefinitely in November. This is why the amount of regular imports is limited, when domestic prices rise too high. This happened, for example, even during the Covid pandemic. Despite this, Turkey’s National Olive and Olive Oil Council is optimistic about Turkey’s role in supplying oil to European markets. It is still expected that the summer harvest will be stronger compared to last year, since the stocks and new production in the country are considered to be sufficient to satisfy the demand on the domestic and European markets.
Oil and organized crime
The current situation has caused olive oil to become the main target of theft in Spanish supermarkets, where organized criminal groups make ends meet. Merchants introduce precautions, such as using a sticker or label on the bottles, which the staff removes during the sale, depending on the severity of the situation. You can find similar groups in Germany as well. In addition, an international gang was broken up in Poland, which bought cheap oil as expensive and high-quality. It’s no wonder that prices, which have tripled in recent years, point to the growing value and demand for olive oil, making it another lucrative target for fraudsters and thieves.
Olivia Lacenov, chief analyst at Wonderinterest Trading Ltd.
[*] Past consequences are not evidence of future consequences.
1] [1] The insight provided is based on assumptions and current estimates, which may be inaccurate, or the current economic environment, which may change. Such knowledge is not a knowledge of future consequences. Include risks and uncertainties that are difficult to convey. Results may differ materially from those released or indicated in any forward-looking statements.
Olvia Lacenov
In the world of financial markets, she started a sales department, where she dealt with clients trading through CFD certificates. She was particularly fascinated by the world of shares and commodities, which she wanted to study in more detail. She spent a year and a half writing professional articles on this topic in the editorial office of Hospodské noviny. At the moment, he is engaged in an analytical activity, where he focuses on the main commodity markets and the development of precious metals, which in physical form he considers to be the best form of seizing property against uncertainty.
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Tags: gold Liquid gold pressure Olive oil prices record levels
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