Russia is conducting a coordinated air and intelligence operation to destroy eastern Ukraine’s Kharkiv, forcing Ukrainians to flee and internally displacing millions ahead of a possible future Russian offensive against Ukraine’s second-largest city or elsewhere in the contested country. This was written by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its analysis. However, according to him, the probability of success of a Russian ground attack against Kharkiv is very low if Ukraine quickly receives new military aid from the United States.
Recently, Russia has again intensified air attacks on Ukraine, which is struggling with a lack of air defense, and Kharkiv and the Kharkiv region are experiencing the most intensive airstrikes, Reuters wrote. Kharkiv, which the Russians tried unsuccessfully to capture at the beginning of their invasion, is only a few tens of kilometers from the Russian border, making it more vulnerable to Russian airstrikes than other Ukrainian cities.
Ukrainian authorities and media report Russian air attacks on Kharkiv and its surroundings practically every day. Invading troops have recently damaged energy infrastructure in the region and on Monday severely damaged the Kharkiv TV tower. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi described the Russian strike as an attempt to instill fear in Kharkiv and limit the city’s residents’ access to information. In this context, ISW recalls the Russian attack on the Kyiv TV tower from the edge of the invasion in March 2022. According to the institute, the Kremlin may want to recall the first weeks of the invasion to cause panic among Ukrainians at the next difficult moment of the war.
Russia is intensifying attacks and intelligence operations against Ukrainians in Kharkiv to take advantage of the current limitations of Ukrainian air defenses and heightened tensions in Ukraine even before expected US military aid arrives at the front, ISW analysts believe. According to him, Kremlin mouthpieces are using fears about a possible future Russian offensive against Kharkiv in an attempt to cause panic among Ukrainians.
For example, Ukraine’s Center for Combating Disinformation warned in February that Russian Telegram channels were spreading claims that Ukrainian officials were fleeing Kharkiv, and Russian sources claimed in early April that the city was experiencing an “exodus” of civilians. In April, the pro-war Russian portal Cargrad highlighted the claim, according to ISW unspecified military sources that a Russian offensive operation to capture Kharkiv is inevitable and the situation in the city will be “worse than in Bakhmut or Avdijivka”, which the Russians captured after long battles and at the cost of devastation of both cities.
Ukrainian officials recently warned of the possibility of a Russian offensive to seize Kharkiv. Oleksandr Pivnenko, head of the Ukrainian National Guard, told Liga.net that Russian troops will attack in unexpected places on the front during the expected summer offensive and could try to advance on Kharkiv. But according to Pivnenko, the Ukrainians will be ready. “For (the Russians) to take Kharkiv, they would have to fight for years. Remember how long Bakhmut and Avdijivka were held,” he said.
A few days ago, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov hinted at Russian interest in an offensive on Kharkiv, claiming that the city “plays an important role” in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s idea of establishing a demilitarized zone in Ukraine, which is supposed to protect Russian border villages from Ukrainian strikes. writes ISW.
At the same time, the American institute believes that an attempt to capture Kharkiv would be “extremely ambitious” for the Russians, and if the Russian military determines that it will not be able to control the city in ground operations, it could try to destroy it with airstrikes and cause a large-scale displacement of civilians. Continued timely US and Western military assistance, particularly the provision of air defense systems and missiles, will be essential to Ukraine’s defense of Kharkiv, ISW added.
