The Russians have advanced behind Avdijivka, the greatest danger is at Chasiv Jar

Russian troops are pushing into a breakthrough near Novobachmutivka, which they took control of on Thursday night. On Thursday, according to their claims, they were also supposed to take control of Solovyov, which, according to the Institute for the Study of War, was confirmed by geo-located images, and to penetrate to a depth of two kilometers in Novokalynové.

The Russians are trying to strengthen and expand the bridgehead, it is already two kilometers long. That’s why they are moving more soldiers there. Units of the 15th motorized rifle brigade and the Arbat spetsnaz battalion are currently operating there.

However, the protrusion deep into the Ukrainian defense is still threatened by a possible Ukrainian counterattack, ISW pointed out. It could also lead to the cutting off of Russian forces, although such a large counterattack cannot be expected.

Russia’s progress in recent days has been quite rapid, but the Institute for the Study of War warns that it will not be possible to maintain it for long, as the units will have to be replenished or replaced.

The Russians have taken control of a strategic point in eastern Ukraine. They took advantage of the rotation of the defenders

The war in Ukraine

In the overall context, the territorial gains west of Avdijivka are not very significant, as the nearest large Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk is about 30 km from the front, and the larger villages near Pokrovsk are about 17 km away.

Only the newly built defensive line of fortifications located south of Novobachmutivka on the line Berdyči–Semenivka–Umaňske is threatened. Defenders on this line can now be attacked to the rear from the salient.

Danger at Časiv Jaru

There is a greater danger near Bakhmut, where the Russians penetrated the edge of Časiv Jar, where they have been attacking since last spring and where they intensified their raids in March this year. The capture of this railway junction would not only better secure the captured Bakhmut, but would also allow an advance to Kostiantynivka, cutting the Ukrainian supply line from Kramatorsk to Torecko.

Mainly, it would clear the way to Kramatorsk, which the Russians have been striving to conquer for a long time. If they occupied Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, they would control the remaining large cities in the Donetsk region. Their capture is the priority goal of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Help may not be enough

According to ISW, the Russians will try to accelerate their attacks until new military aid arrives from the United States. Some American officials have already warned that the current aid package will not be enough for the Ukrainians to take the initiative and launch a counterattack to liberate the occupied territories. The reason is the change in the situation on the battlefield in recent months, when the Ukrainians had to go on the defensive.

“The immediate goal is to stem Ukraine’s losses and help Ukraine regain activity and stem the tide. After that, the goal is to help Ukraine start reclaiming its territory,” an unnamed US official told Politico. However, he is not sure that they will have everything they need to do so. “There is no guarantee. Military operations are much more complicated.’

Lawmakers are also unsure whether additional US-supplied weapons “can lead to the defeat of Russia, or whether it is just enough to temporarily deter a (Russian) invasion.”

The Ukrainians don’t have a plan, they lack people more than ammunition

US National Council spokesman John Kirby warned on Tuesday that Ukraine still does not have a plan to defeat Russia. According to him, the Americans will discuss with the Ukrainian leadership about its long-term strategy to push back Russian aggression and will adjust other aid packages according to these plans.

The commander of the Ukrainian 93rd mechanized brigade Kholodny Yar, which is fighting near Bakhkut, col. Pavlo Palisa said on Thursday that a bigger problem than the lack of ammunition is the lack of a team. “Now one soldier fights for three or four. It is not only about those who perform tasks in the front line, but also about the fire support units.” According to him, this is reflected in the performance. Errors also increase due to overload.

According to him, the situation is not yet as catastrophic as in other places where the Russians have a tenfold advantage. “So five- or seven-fold. We feel this advantage of theirs. If they can attack our position once a week and lose two to five combat vehicles and 40 infantry each time, then they have such resources. We cannot afford that,” he said in an interview with the Suspilne station.

He considers the worst of the losses to be the loss of older soldiers who can pass on their experience to new arrivals.