At the outset, it should be said that the prices of gasoline and diesel are determined by refineries. Distributors and, of course, fuel sellers, i.e. gas stations, subsequently add their margins to their output prices.
“According to mutual agreement, all refineries in the European Union sell their products at the same price, set on the commodity exchange in Rotterdam. In most countries of the world, a larger part of the final price of gasoline is made up of taxes – especially consumption tax and value added tax,” writes the Kurzy.cz server, which regularly informs about the prices of individual commodities.
In our country, the share of taxes on the total price is currently approximately 49 percent for gasoline and 43 percent for diesel fuel, as can be seen from the attached table, which also shows the share of individual taxes on the final price and at the same time also shows the amount of individual margins.
Photogallery: – Bet on thirteen
As for the current prices, it is evident that they have been increasing almost linearly for the last month, so that on March 25, the price of gasoline was at the level of CZK 38.47 per liter, and the price of diesel was essentially the same at that time.
After a month, the situation changed. While diesel has “only” risen to CZK 39.22 per liter, drivers are currently paying much more for gasoline – CZK 40.40 per liter.
And what is the forecast for the future? If you’re expecting optimistic news, you won’t get it. Petr Lajsek, financial analyst, macroeconomist and stock trader, writes about it. He in his article on Kurzy.cz server states that last week the prices of petrol rose more significantly again, and a liter reached 40.37 CZK on average, which is 25 halers more than a week ago. The average price of diesel also rose slightly, rising by 6 halers to CZK 39.25 per liter in a week.
“High oil prices and seasonal factors are still reflected in fuel prices. The motoring season officially starts in April and summer is unstoppably approaching. This significantly increases the demand for gasoline in particular, which is gradually reflected in its price,” analyzes Lajsek, adding that since March 1, Russia also banned the export of gasoline for 6 months due to domestic prices, and it subsequently traveled primarily to African countries, but on the market miss.
Photogallery: – Eurolottery
This will probably be reflected in our market as well, where we can expect further price increases for gasoline, and next week the average price will exceed the level of CZK 40.50 per liter.
“An increase above CZK 41 by the end of May is also not excluded. On the other hand, diesel, the price of which has been falling on the stock exchange since the beginning of April, could stabilize,” adds the economist, at least partially good news, which, according to him, is also due to seasonal factors, and in the future there could even be a slight correction in diesel prices, the average could once again reach fall below CZK 39 per liter of diesel at the end of May.
Which, of course, means that the price gap between diesel and gasoline will begin to widen again.
The fact that the main producers do not intend to increase their offer too much should also contribute to this, although there are various reasons leading them to do so.
“Current oil prices are very favorable for the OPEC cartel, and an early increase in production quotas is so unlikely,” writes Lajsek, adding that we cannot expect higher production even from Venezuela, which will again be subject to US sanctions.
Venezuela’s production will probably reach a ceiling of around 1 million barrels of oil per day, and export growth cannot be expected.
Even in view of these factors, oil prices will probably remain at above-average values for a long time.
According to the economist, we probably won’t see gasoline become cheaper any time soon.
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author: Martin Hummel
