In recent days and weeks, the attention of the media and others in Czech politics has been mainly focused on the coalition TOP 09. The government party is going through a difficult period after the botched exchange of the minister for science, research and innovation. There are proposals for a change in leadership and doubts about the meaning of the Spolu coalition’s existence, where the ODS remains the only strong entity. For example, according to party founder and ex-minister of finance Miroslav Kalouska, Spolu is only a rescue. TOP 09 and the people have nothing more to give her, they think.
Economist Pavel Tuleja was originally supposed to fill the post vacated after the resignation of Helena Langšádlová, whom the party criticized for insufficient presentation of results in her department. He gave up his candidacy because of information that he had published in so-called predatory journals and because of criticism of the quality of his professional work.
The ruling party subsequently became restless and its chairperson Markéta Pekarová Adamová was criticized, not only for the unsuccessful exchange, but also for the wrong preferences.
For KDU-ČSL it is already common, but TOP 09’s low preferences are only confirmed by the third survey in a row. According to data from the Median agency, she would have received 3.5 percent of the vote in April, and thus did not reach the lower house on her own. It was the same a month earlier, and the Kantar agency had previously calculated a preference of 4.5 percent. With statistical error, but still less than the previously common 5 to 6 percent.
There can be several reasons. The party does not necessarily have prominent representatives, and if it does, then rather in the negative sense of the word. Both President Pekarová Adamová and Minister of Health Vlastimil Válek are often perceived negatively. There is also dissatisfaction with the position of TOP 09 in the government coalition. Some party members do not like the places TOP 09 took in the end.
“All Monday I have received phone calls from many party members, I sense that there is dissatisfaction among the members. If someone would present a solution that would be better for TOP 09, let’s talk about it. But I don’t see him,” MEP and former party chairman Jiří Pospíšil told Hospodářské noviny. “We should wait to see how the president resolves the whole matter with the selection of Helena Langšádlová’s successor. In addition, we have European, regional and senate elections ahead of us, we would only do ourselves a disservice by convening the Diet in a headless way,” he added.
Therefore, there are rumors that the only future of TOP 09 is within Spolu. But some disagree with that. “Coalitions are not rescue companies, but united forces. So you have to have that power to offer it. The only chance to maintain existence is to abandon empty platitudes and return your politics to substantive content. But that has to be worked out,” ex-minister Kalousek told his party.
“While TOP 09 in most surveys (including the other two in April – STEM and MEDIAN) is rather above the limiting clause, for KDU-ČSL surveys consistently confirm a drop below it. It is possible to speculate whether this has to do with government involvement and the fact that the party does not always look completely united, or with ideological differences within the party that voters may not understand. In any case, the personnel retention of their party elites in top politics even after the next elections is now quite strongly connected with the Together project,” points out political scientist Roman Chytilek.
“The atmosphere inside the coalition can change, and during various negotiations, the ODS can pull a longer and longer part of the rope – because it can be aware that the smaller coalition partners have no other alternative at the moment than to go to the elections together (it is also necessary to remember that that each filled mandate brings money to the party coffers). But I wouldn’t say that the parties are a mutual burden – they still add a not entirely negligible bonus to the result of the ODS (if this party ran independently),” said his colleague Otto Eibl.
The leader of TOP 09 and the Chamber of Deputies responded in the affirmative to the question of preferences back in March. “I remember that, for example, in 2019, Topka had preferences below 5 percent before my presidency. The stability of voter support is therefore visible here in the long term, but of course, like any leader, I would like to see those numbers grow. (…) I think it is important to see the wider context. It’s not about polls, it’s about electoral gains. In those, the number of elected representatives always increased, whether it was the House of Representatives or the Senate. So, in short, our results are good, although yes, I could definitely imagine higher preferences,” she declared.
However, if the latest polls were to be based on, things would not look too good for TOP 09 and, furthermore, not even for the current government coalition. TOP 09 has its so-called voter core at 1 percent.
According to the latest survey by Median, the entire current democratic bloc would take 31 percent of the votes, with TOP 09 and the People’s Party in coalitions 38 percent. ANO and SPD a total of 42.5 percent. So, it is not possible without pre-election coalitions. Without them, it would risk losing 26.5 percent of the vote, more than a quarter.
