Median: ANO would win the elections in March, support for non-parliamentary parties is growing

The ANO movement would win the parliamentary elections in March with 32% of the votes, the second ODS would have 14% and the third would be the Pirates with 10.5% of the people voting. The SPD with seven percent and the STAN movement with six percent would also pass the House. Of the current parliamentary parties, the People’s Party and TOP 09 would remain outside the lower chamber. At the same time, support for political groups that are now outside the Chamber of Deputies is growing. This follows from the election model published by the Median agency on its website today. Willingness to participate in the election rose slightly to 62.5% against the February survey.

“The March data shows voter fatigue with parliamentary parties, which is manifested by relatively higher support for parties outside the Chamber of Deputies. An increase in support was recorded by KSČM, PRO 2022, Přísaha, Zelení and Trikolora,” said the authors of the survey. According to them, the shift is probably the result of the beginning campaign before the elections to the European Parliament.

Support for ANO and Pirates has changed only slightly. Compared to the February Median model, it increased by a percentage point for ANO and decreased by half a percentage point for the Pirates. The STAN movement did not maintain February’s nine percent support. “ODS continues to strengthen at the expense of its coalition partners,” Median reported. Of the parties that formed a Spolu coalition with the ODS before the last parliamentary elections, TOP 09 and the People’s Party would both get 3.5% of the vote in March. “TOP 09 would be outside the Chamber of Deputies for the first time since April 2023,” the authors of the survey noted.

According to Median, the SPD, whose support fell by 2.5 percentage points compared to February, is losing mainly to PRO 2022 and the Tricolor. PRO 2022 would be chosen by four percent of voters in March, and Trikolor by two percent. The KSČM and Social Democracy (SOCDEM) would receive 4.5% each, the model gives a 3.5% gain to the Přísaha movement and three percent to the Green Party.

The parties of the current government coalition, i.e. ODS, TOP 09, People’s Party, STAN and Pirates, have the support of 37.5% of potential voters in total, the authors of the survey said. Without forming pre-election coalitions, they would have won 88 out of 200 parliamentary seats.

“Willingness to participate in the elections increased slightly compared to the last survey,” Median said. According to their statement, 53% of respondents would definitely participate in the elections to the House of Representatives in March, another 9.5% are considering participation. Certainly 30% of survey participants would not go to the polls, rather 7.5% would not go.