From the United States of America, the first stop is the job market there changes in job vacancies according to the ADP agency. Their survey should indicate that the labor market is even more tense, when the market predicts an increase of 150,000 jobs. That would be a small amount if not in Norway, and the cold storage of the labor market called by the Fed is not being delivered at the moment. However, the financial markets will soon be waiting to see if the official statistics will confirm the state of the labor market.
The end of the shortened week brought a lot of data from the Czech economy. It was public Minutes from the last meeting of the NB Bank Council, from which it follows that vice-governor Jan Frait and only Tom Holub voted for a drastic rate cut. The Banking Council also sees pro-inflationary risks, and therefore intends to proceed cautiously when loosening the monetary policy. We learned the result in the morning hours purchasing managers index (PMI), which in March reached a value of 46.2 points, which is the highest value since August 2022, indicating a gradually improving condition in the manufacturing sector. In the afternoon, the Ministry of Finance published the result of the state budget for the first quarter of this year, when the deficit amounted to K 105 billion and compared to Norway, the deficit remained at the same level.
The most interesting event from a global point of view was the publication of the water estimate zero inflation in Germany, which increased by 0.6% month-on-month according to the Eurostat methodology. The average rate decreased from 2.7% to 2.3%, although the market predicted a slight decrease (2.4%). According to the methodology of the German Statistical Office, inflation even reached 2.2% in the middle of the year.
World shares did not enter the new quarter on the right foot, when the American S&P 500 index lost 0.7% and the German DAX even lost 1.1%. On the contrary, the stock market rose by 0.7%, when mainly the shares of companies from the financial sector rose. The koruna also oscillates around the EUR/CZK limit of 25.30.
Author: Martin Kron, analyst
Editor: Lenka Kalivodov, analyst
The economic research team of Raiffeisenbank as
