Today, our focus will be on Czech Republic, where the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for April will first be published, in the afternoon we will learn about the full state of the national budget and on Friday the monetary-political decision of the NB Bank Council regarding the set annual rates will be announced. In ppad index of purchasing behavior slightly improved compared to the previous month (46.7 vs. 46.2), but it is still only getting closer to the limit of expansion. Steady start by the end of the year, it was in a deficit of K -105 billion, compared to the previous year, however, it was full by half of the chapters. For the session NB let’s hope that it will be decided on dream core two-week repo rate from 5.75% to 5.25%. The sustained inflation development, which was maintained twice in a row by the Central Bank (2%) allows monetary policy to be relaxed, i.e. not by 50 bp but not enough, also with reference to the words of some members of the Bank Council regarding the persistent inflationary risks that would fall the dream of inila rates was less defensible to the public.
We’ll find out in the afternoon the development of new orders in the USAwhen the market slightly exceeded month-on-month growth from 1.4% in Norway to 1.6% in March.
Zpt view:
Today, after the public Labor Day, we will be back in two days, so first on terwhen the estimate was published in real gross domcho product R for the first quarter of 2024. Quarter-on-quarter, the Czech economy grew by 0.5%, i.e. slightly above expectations and the market forecast (0.4%). With falling inflation, real wages are now rising, which has a positive effect on household demand for medium-term and long-term consumption goods and boosts retail sales. In the meantime, the comparative GDP grew at the same rate (+0.4%), which is almost returning to the growth trajectory.
Vce in the comment: https://investice.rb.cz/?c15002[key]=5076
The economy was also a positive surprise Germanyhis GDP according to previous forecasts, it increased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter (compared to the estimate of +0.1%). This encouraged razantnji i eurozone economy, which grew by 0.3% compared to the previous quarter (and compared to the estimate of 0.1%), it is the highest increase for the last year and a half. In the meantime, Germany’s GDP fell according to estimates (-0.2%), but the Eurozone’s interest rate also increased in the same period, namely by 0.4% (estimated at 0.2%). Inflation in euro it reached the same level as in the beginning at 2.4%.
Steda she was fascinating to look at USAwhere the data (according to the ADP agency) of employment in the private sector, which in April sent 192 thousand of new workers and increased the overall market, even when the number was not in full swing (208 thousand). Total number of new jobsreported by the JOLTS agency, then fell from 8.8 million in November to 8.4 million in June. Manufacturing PMI index according to the ISM institute, it fell from 50.3 in March to 49.2 in April, which caught the market and thus reflects a slight contraction in production caused by a drop in orders and price pressures on foreign investments. The most memorable moment of the day was Fed sessionwho, according to oekvn, decided to take her by leave the annual rates at the same level (5.25-5.50%). Inflationary pressures are still not easing, even though they have eased over the last year, the 2% tariff has not yet been reached, which, even in view of the tight labor market, has not yet freed up space for money.
The American index S&P 500 struggled during the Fed speech by Jerome Powell, after the speech it recorded a sharp rise, and the total thus depreciated by -0.34%. The German DAX even fell by -1.03%, and is in decline even in the 5-day horizon. The PX index fell by -0.12% at the stock market break, the weekly performance is -0.63%. On Tuesday, the koruna was stable around EUR/CZK 25.15, the faith sent to EUR/CZK 25.07.
Author: Vt Mikuek, analyst
Editor: Martin Kron, analyst
Tags: Morning window Fed left rates unchanged expected decide today
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