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After many months of denial, the United States reversed course and provided Ukraine with ATACMS long-range ballistic missiles. According to reports by the New York Times and Reuters citing unnamed sources, Ukraine has already used them for the first time.
Sources said that on April 17, Kiev was to fire missiles at a Russian air base in Crimea, about 100 miles (165 kilometers) from the front, and use them this week to launch another strike against a target in the occupied city of Berdyansk on the Sea of Azov.
The missiles were to be part of the latest small US aid package of $300 million announced in March. However, the United States this week completed the approval process of a bill that allocates $61 billion to support Ukraine, and which, according to earlier reports, is also expected to include ATACMS missiles.
What’s in the new US aid package?
The approval of nearly $61 billion in US aid is the best news for Kyiv in a long time. The Ukrainians are to receive the weapons they most need very quickly. They can already feel relief and better morale.
Two kinds of danger
The US missiles, with a range of 300 kilometers, are expected to give Ukraine a new ability to attack valuable Russian targets deep in the rear. In practice, this can mean more destroyed Russian equipment, warehouses, bridges, railways and buildings serving, for example, as bases for headquarters or resting soldiers.
Such a threat to Russia is not new, but ATACMS still have the longest range of any heavy missile that Ukraine has ever had. And other important advantages.
The missiles will reach deep into Russia, but Ukraine should fire them only at occupied territories:
Photo: List of News
The map shows the range of Ukrainian cities located directly on the front line or nearby.
British Storm Shadow missiles and their French SCALP version are closest to American missiles in range and power, with an estimated range of 250 kilometers. The Ukrainian anti-ship Neptunes should be able to fly as far as the ATACMS (at least their variant with an even greater range should be under development), but they are considerably smaller.
The longer-range version of the ATACMS weighs about 1,300 kilograms (roughly the same as the Storm Shadow and about 400 kg more than the Neptune). It can carry one large warhead suitable for eliminating smaller but perhaps more durable targets (again similar to Storm Shadow). But it also has a variant that transports 300 small bombs over a distance of 300 kilometers, which disperse into the wider area at their destination. It is a so-called cluster munition, the use of which is restricted by the Convention on the Prohibition of Cluster Munitions, ratified by 100 states in 2010. However, the USA, Ukraine and Russia did not do so.
Such characteristics of the new missiles in the Ukrainian arsenal could be useful, for example, in attacks on airports or any other larger targets that do not have robust fortifications or armor.
By the way, last year Ukraine also used the very first ATACMS missiles it ever received for such a purpose. At that time, it was a variant with a shorter range (albeit with a load of up to 950 small bombs), and the Ukrainians were supposed to use it to destroy several helicopters and other valuable equipment at Russian airfields.
Apart from the range and variability in the warheads, the advantages of ATACMS include the fact that they can be fired from HIMARS and M270 rocket launchers, which Ukraine received earlier. The Ukrainians must launch Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles from the air.
But ATACMS are also important for the development of the war purely because they are simply other long-range missiles. Let us recall that, for example, the Ukrainians were supposed to receive 50 French SCALPs last year, and in January of this year Paris promised another 40. In total, France should only have about 400 of them available. It is not known how much London gave Ukraine, but it itself only has about 700 1000.
The Kyiv Post writes that according to the statistics of the manufacturer ATACMS (Lockheed Martin), a total of about 4,000 of these missiles were produced (including versions with a shorter range). Of these, the United States sold about 1,750 for export and used about 600. The current production capacity should be “less than 500 units per year” and most of it should go abroad as part of already concluded contracts.
However, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said this Wednesday, while confirming information from anonymous sources to reporters, that President Biden had directed Ukraine to receive a “significant number” of ATACMS missiles.
How many of them Ukraine will eventually receive, however, has not yet been heard anywhere. It can be expected that the US will supply more missiles than France and Great Britain, but it is far from certain.
Russia will have to respond
If there are a lot of missiles, according to analysts, Russian capabilities will not only suffer from the direct influence of any destroyed combat or logistical elements, but also from the need to adapt to the new threat.
“This will force the Russians to change a lot of their strategy and tactics,” former US artillery officer Dan Rice told Business Insider, for example. According to him, Russia will have to choose between a higher risk of losing certain assets and their reduced usability in the event that it moves them to safety beyond the range of missiles.
“Russia will be forced to disperse its military assets to reduce its vulnerability to ATACMS,” University of Oslo missile and nuclear weapons expert Fabian Hoffman told Newsweek. Specifically, according to him, it can weaken, for example, Russian air defense, increase pressure on logistics and, for example, reduce the usability of the air force.
However, it cannot be expected that missiles alone will win the war for Ukraine. After all, even the White House admitted this. “There is no magic wand in this conflict. One gun alone is not going to solve everything,” Sullivan said.
