News from the battlefield: The main interest of the Russian command has shifted to the south

The pace of fighting in Ukraine has been high in recent days. Russian losses reported by the Ukrainian side exceeded 1000 men (killed and wounded) for several days in a row. There is no point in quoting the Russian data; they undoubtedly contain true information, but it is difficult to find them in the flood of obviously false data.

All along the front, Russian troops were more active, as is usual in recent weeks. Ukrainian forces still do not have enough ammunition and, above all, teams for offensive operations, and are concentrating exclusively on defense.

Russian forces are concentrating on attacks in several areas, we will focus in more detail on the area around Avdijivka, where the situation is changing the fastest. We will describe the rest of the queue only briefly.

On the northern front of the war, i.e. in the Luhansk region, the fighting did not lead to any major changes in the course of the line. Ukrainian defenses are relatively “established” here, and Russian forces have neither managed to surprise them nor fundamentally weaken them.

The heaviest fighting took place in the Donetsk region. For example, the Russians unsuccessfully tried to advance at Bilohorivka. Clashes continued in the place that was considered the likely main scene of the next big battle, namely near the town of Časiv Jar behind Bakhmut. However, the situation has changed.

Generals from Ukraine on the Russian side

Russian forces have seen success in the more southerly areas, and the front around Chasiv Yar has seemed somewhat less important to the Russian command in recent days. This can of course be a false impression, for example Russian generals may be preparing additional forces for an attack in the area and the situation may change quickly.

In the past week, however, the bombardment with the help of glide bombs and the shelling of the city continued around Časiv Jaru. Ground attacks were not as intense as further south. Apparently, the Russians still do not control a single quarter of the city that lies in front of a large canal running basically the entire area from north to south. At the same time, the channel is obviously the best and most suitable place for defense.

Nevertheless, they have had some successes. Russian forces https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1785764805195739548 at the point where the canal runs underground south of the city. It is a wooded area, which is so suitable for the usual Russian “infiltration” tactic, that is, attacks by small detachments of infantry. And a convenient place to start a bypass of the city from the southern side – another tactic commonly used in Ukraine to attack settlements that the enemy has fortified.

But the Russian forces have not launched a really intensive attack in this area either, although small battles are taking place here and small Russian detachments are already breaking through the channel from time to time (so far they have not been able to build a permanent position behind it). So, for now, we can rather talk about the preparation for an attack on the city.

In recent days, the focus of the fighting has been mainly in the Donetsk region, especially northwest of the recently captured Avdijivka. As we stated in the previous text, the Russian troops here were able to take advantage of the mistakes of the defense and the general Ukrainian lack of men and material and within a few days advance several kilometers to the west, specifically in the area around the village of Ocheretyne.

The village has a relatively advantageous location from a military point of view. In this relatively flat area of ​​Ukraine, there is a large number of streams and rivers, which, although easily fordable, nevertheless complicate transport and supply. In addition, there are also a large number of usually small water reservoirs that are difficult to cross.

Above the lowland there is an inconspicuous ridge that stretches from Avdijivka to Očeretyne and further west. The railway line runs along this ridge because construction is the easiest here, as there is no need to build so many bridges.

The way to the west is actually the easiest through Očeretyne. The village was thus supposed to be a key part of the Ukrainian defense. So it was well fortified, but for still unclear reasons, perhaps due to an error in unit rotation, the fortifications were not sufficiently manned. Therefore, the Russians could even use one of the trenches as a covered approach to the entrance to the village.

Ocheretyne is located in a longer spur of Russian-controlled territory northwest of Avdijivka.

Given the importance of the village, it is therefore not surprising that the Russian command has focused on trying to expand its sudden penetration of Ukrainian defenses during the past week. First of all, the Russians occupied several villages around Ocheretyne, so they secured their flanks.

For example, the village of Solovjove, south of Očeretyne, or Keramik, located to the east, are newly occupied. It was occupied by another attack, but only after the situation of the defenders became untenable due to the fall of Očeretyne. Since then, Russian forces in this area have advanced towards the village of Archandělske. Everything indicates that the Ukrainian troops already see this line as unsustainable and are withdrawing in a northern direction.

To the west of Ocheretyne, the Russian forces have not yet reached another village, i.e. Novooleksandrivka. However, according to the pro-Ukraine group DeepState, which maps the course of the conflict based on published videos, Russian forces have advanced several kilometers in the area in recent days.

The Russian attack is apparently conducted roughly in the area where the line of responsibility lies between the two Ukrainian units (https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1777391162942234725). Which makes military sense, as coordination across units is generally more difficult. Especially in a situation where the defense is clearly caught off guard and doesn’t have much time to react and organize units.

Even though the Ukrainian command has called additional reinforcements to the area, they have not yet been able to stop the Russian advance. Undoubtedly also because the Russians currently enjoy advantages in a number of sub-aspects of the war: artillery, air force and manpower.

At the same time, the fighting does not take place from trench to trench and is quite dynamic, even if only in the close vicinity of the front. The Ukrainians do not wait for Russian strikes, they withdraw from positions covered by artillery or bombs to avoid losses. As soon as the worst is over, they return to them again, while the Russians try to quickly occupy the vacated trenches by advancing from their positions. So it is a kind of “race”, as military analyst Tom Cooper put it simply.

In recent weeks, Kiev has begun to place great emphasis on building fortified positions in the rear, which it previously neglected. Currently, two lines of large fortifications are being built in the Donetsk region, but they are apparently not in such a state of readiness that Ukrainian units could withdraw to these lines. According to Finnish analyst Pasi Paroninen, neither is ready for battle yet.

The rapid advance of the Russians near Ocheretyne means that the first of these planned lines could very soon be within reach of Russian troops. Which would mean that it will not be completed and the Ukrainian army will have to retreat even further in the northwest direction in the foreseeable future.

After all, this is also evidenced by the progress of other battles in the area. Ukrainian troops also left the village of Semenivka, which lies south of Ocheretyne and basically directly west of Avdijivka. Apparently, it was a withdrawal in a situation where there were no forces for further defense or it did not make military sense, but we do not have exact information.

In any case, this means that the defense line on the Durna River and the water reservoirs on it, which we speculated (and not only us) as a possible new line at Avdijivka, is seriously disturbed. Due to the nature of the terrain behind it, it can be expected that the Ukrainian troops will have to retreat further to the west, perhaps by some ten kilometers, where another suitable defensive position is available.

Although the situation in and around Ocheretyne is clearly the most serious – and also the most surprising – for Ukraine, Russian troops have also made small gains in other places in the Donetsk and Zaporozhye regions. For example, they progressed slightly in Pervomajský, where, however, the fighting is still rather positional. The pace of Russian progress is not that unusual.

Fighting is also ongoing on the southern front, with the village of Robotyne, for example, gradually turning into a “no man’s land” as Russian attacks gradually degrade Ukrainian fortified positions in the area. But this is again the usual situation where the defenders fight from prepared defenses and the invading forces advance only at the cost of heavy casualties. The defense situation is therefore more favorable than around Avdijivka.

Fighting also continued in the Kherson region, where Ukrainian troops still hold a bridgehead around the village of Krynky. The fighting reportedly also broke out on the island of Nestryha in the Dnieper delta. The Ukrainian command announced its liberation, and even though it is apparently a completely insignificant territory from a military point of view, the Russians responded by shelling and probably even an attempt to land on the island.

Russian strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure and rear targets also continued. It again included, at first glance, obvious war crimes, such as the cluster munition attack on the center of Odessa.

From a military point of view, however, the weakness of Ukraine’s air defense is a bigger problem. There is an increasing number of video recordings of the movement of Russian drones relatively far in the Ukrainian rear, even around 100 kilometers. The undisturbed movement of these machines then allows the Russians to aim the strikes of guided missiles at important military targets, such as airports, barracks or other gathering places of troops.

Ukraine has an obvious shortage of guided anti-aircraft missiles and other equipment, so it reaches for temporary solutions. Thus, a Yak-52 training propeller aircraft, i.e. an aircraft of a type that is half a century old, struck over Odessa against a Russian drone. The plane apparently had no weapons, and the drone was shot down with a handgun by the second crew member, who was sitting in the back seat.

However, the Ukrainian military – and the militaries of other countries – will have to find some systematic and sufficiently inexpensive solution to the problem of reconnaissance drones.

Kyiv continued to use recently delivered ATACMS missiles against targets in Crimea as well as attacks against Russian oil refineries.