Czechs want to stay in the EU, the referendum would not succeed | iRADIO

The Czechs do not want to leave the European Union. This confirms the long-term trend, which has remained stable above 50 percent since 2018. “The development was definitely marked by individual crises. The Czech public was inclined to withdraw just after the European debt crisis. The biggest drop is associated with the migration crisis around 2015 and 2016,” sociologist Martin Kratochvíl describes the data.

According to him, the company’s current setup is in a “safe zone” where supporters of remaining in the EU have a clear advantage.

“It is important to realize that we are asking the entire public, but the referendum would only be decided by those who would come to it, so as in every election, participation would be the deciding factor,” points out STEM Institute analyst Kratochvíl.

If a referendum were to take place, the campaign would play a crucial role. In the current situation, practically none of the parties is leading, although for the SPD movement it is one of the basic building programs of the program.

No referendum, yes EU

However, the Divided Europe survey shows that the Czechs are not even in favor of holding a referendum. Only 36 percent of the company would like it to take place, while 50 percent do not care about the voting at all.

However, if the referendum were to proceed, almost 60 percent of Czechs would vote to remain in the EU.

How do individual groups view a possible referendum? There is a clear position among the Euroenthusiasts, or Supporters on the one hand, and Rock Opponents on the other. The lukewarm supporters would also favor the option to stay, while the Opponents, on the other hand, would prefer to leave.

“The interesting thing is that when we talk about the Uncertain, who are on the border between these two views, the low intensity of their attitudes is shown. Currently, they would vote predominantly to remain, but their position is usually more centrist. At the moment, they play the role of a tip in the scales, where a lot would depend on how the public debate would unfold and who would influence them,” comments the Kratochvíl group’s position.

Support to stay with opponents

However, the hesitant attitude is already evident during the decision-making process itself – whether or not to call a referendum on the Czech Republic’s withdrawal from the EU. “It may be too abstract a question for them. It may not be something that is that important to them or something that they have thought about intensively yet. He doesn’t have to have his attitude completely formed,” the sociologist points out.

Among the anti-EU part of society, there are always about a tenth of those who would vote to remain in a possible referendum in the groups of Opponents and Rock opponents.

However, the researchers point out that this is a very small group. “One could think of them as those who would rather stay and possibly reform the European Union from within. This means: they didn’t necessarily have to fully break the stick over it yet,” explains the STEM analyst.

At the same time, their thinking is moving towards what the EU used to look like. They do not want politics to play too much of a role in it, they would rather stay with a purely economic grouping.

Entry into the Eurozone?

Not withdrawal from the Union, but not any stronger attachment either. Among the Czechs, 45 percent are supporters of European integration, which roughly corresponds to those who are satisfied with EU membership. Sociologists from the STEM Institute place emphasis on this aspect because, thanks to it, they define the segment of Euroenthusiasts in society.

“If I directly support European integration, that means: I have no problem with the fact that we join the eurozone or further integrate with other states, perhaps handing over part of the powers to common institutions, there is definitely a specific characteristic in the Czech environment that deserves its own group,” explains the division of Kratochvíl.

All three pro-Union groups in the framework of the Divided by Europe research are in favor of European integration. More pronounced skepticism begins with the Uncertain. However, integration is not completely rejected even by anti-EU sections of the public.

The reason may be the fact that it is rather an abstract concept for them or it is a topic that they have not thought about in any significant way.

“Regardless of what group people fall into, they’re not cut out for it or it’s more complicated for them in the sense that there are a lot of those events around. We have a relativizing postscript in that ‘even if I don’t agree with some specific measures’. That’s why neither support nor opposition is as intense as we might expect,” the sociologist tells iROZHLAS.cz.

(In)ability to assert oneself

The lack of confidence in the fact that the national voice would be fundamentally heard at the EU level speaks to thinking about deeper cooperation in EU structures. Even after twenty years of experience, the Czechs do not believe that the country would be able to assert itself in any significant way.

“The exception was the initial period, when the share of those who thought that the Czech Republic was capable of playing an active role in the EU was almost half,” describes Kratochvíl.

The public was on a positive wave even during the first Czech presidency in 2009. After the second presidency from the year before last, the impression remained more lukewarm.

Although the presidency in the second half of 2022 aroused more interest in European topics among Czechs, it did not leave the impression that the Czech Republic would build a stronger position within the EU.

“The government and the Czech officials who took part in it received positive feedback and the public praised them for handling the presidency as such. But whether under the impression of a crisis or precisely under the impression of long-term skepticism, the effect in the horizon of a year and beyond the presidency is very limited or almost non-existent,” notes the STEM sociologist.

Anna Urbanová

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