Since last year, the US has not approved any new aid for Ukraine. Resources were also drying up in Europe. Thus, Ukraine found itself on the verge of a collapse of the front line. And the situation corresponded to it. The loss of the key Avdijivka, which was fought for months and finally fell into the hands of the Russians. And the Russians didn’t stop. They continued further west, absorbing one village after another.
Ukrainian soldiers had to save ammunition. “On some sections of the front line, for every shell the Ukrainians fired at the Russian lines, the Russians fired seventeen in response,” wrote the Economist. The Ukrainians had to save ammunition. That will change once aid begins to flow from the United States. American President Joe Biden signed the aid package immediately after the round in the US Congress, i.e. in the House of Representatives and in the Senate. “Joe Biden signed into law on April 24, ordering the immediate shipment of the first $1 billion in shipments, which are expected to arrive within days.” it says in the Economist newspaper.
Many sounded the alarm before the aid was approved. CIA chief Bill Burns told Congress: “There is a very real risk that the Ukrainians could lose on the battlefield by the end of 2024, or at least put Putin in a position where he can essentially dictate the terms of a political settlement.” French President Macron warned that if help does not come, that the Russians will move towards Kharkiv and Odessa, thus completely cutting Ukraine off from the Black Sea.
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But that’s out of the question now. The aid, as calculated by Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment think tank, should be enough in terms of ammunition for a year’s war.
But Ukraine was noticeably affected by the delay in aid. “The firepower imbalance of recent months has already had dire consequences. The Russian advantage in artillery gave his troops cover in the advance. Worse, it has forced Ukraine to repel attacks with infantry armed with grenades and small arms, rather than with its own artillery. This led to more Ukrainian casualties and fewer Russian casualties than would otherwise have been the case,” the Economist wrote, noting that 1,000 Russians die or are injured on the frontlines every day.
But there are problems elsewhere. Russia has gained a fire advantage thanks to the hesitancy of the US Congress. Moreover, Ukraine is internally divided about mobilization. The political fight over lowering the age limit for mobilization and the escape of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians of conscription age from the territory of Ukraine. Due to the lack of troops, Ukraine will not be able to plan and launch its offensive against Russian troops.
The law on mobilization in Ukraine was changed on April 3, when President Volodymyr Zelenskyi signed a reduction in the age of conscripts for mobilization from 27 to 25 years. The law also requires all men of military age to register in a new database, which also applies to people who fled abroad before the war. The President of Ukraine opposed this law for a long time. “Zelensky initially resisted, worried about the political and economic fallout,” writes the Economist.
Photogallery: – Convoy of freedom
In addition, the November elections in the USA also bring uncertainty. Both presidential and congressional ones. The political image of the USA may change completely after the elections, and Ukraine will cease to be the center of interest for the Western powers. And that doesn’t give Ukraine much time or hope either.
The fiercest fighting is currently taking place over the town of Chasov Yar, near the town of Bakhmut, which Russia captured nine months ago. Chasov Yar is a key city for both Ukrainians and Russians. The Ukrainians have it fortified, surrounded by trenches and recently built fortifications. After seizing the city, Russia would have access to the entire Donetsk region.
The Ukrainian army also reports large reconnaissance actions by Russian drones near the second largest Ukrainian city of Kharkiv. “Capturing such an important place would be a huge psychological victory, but Russia almost certainly lacks both the troops and enough mechanized vehicles for a decisive attack,” The Economist claims.
Russia is also trying to demoralize the public of Ukraine by bombing the energy sector. It destroyed power plants and substations that distributed 7 GW of electricity. Now Ukraine is completely dependent on its nuclear resources. “Ukraine is now almost entirely dependent on nuclear power plants. Although Russia is unlikely to bomb them, it can hit the transmission lines. “Kyiv already suffers from constant power outages that weaken the morale of the population,” wrote the Economist.
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Ukraine (War in Ukraine)
Reports from the battlefield are difficult to verify in real time, regardless of whether they come from any side of the conflict. Both warring parties, for understandable reasons, may release completely or partially false (misleading) information.
PL editorial content discussing this conflict can be found on this page.
war in Ukraine
Reports from the battlefield are difficult to verify in real time, regardless of whether they come from any side of the conflict. Both warring parties, for understandable reasons, may release completely or partially false (misleading) information.
You can find brief information regarding this conflict updated by ČTK several times an hour on this page. PL editorial content discussing this conflict can be found on this page.
author: Marian Kučera
