29/03/2024
reading time 4 minutes
China’s rapid military build-up is more extensive than anything since World War II, meaning it is well on its way to its 2027 goal of being ready to invade Taiwan, US Navy Admiral John Aquilino said.
“All indications are that the LOA will meet President Xi Jinping’s directive to be ready to attack Taiwan by 2027,” Aquilino wrote in testimony before the US House Armed Services Committee. writes Matthew Loh.
“Furthermore, the actions of the ICAO indicate their ability to meet Xi Jinping’s preferred timeline for the unification of Taiwan with mainland China, if ordered,” added the admiral, the outgoing head of the US Indo-Pacific Command.
Notably, Aquilino told lawmakers at Wednesday’s hearing that he also believes China still hopes to assimilate Taiwan without war, even as Beijing rapidly approaches the capacity to attack.
He and Deputy Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Command Ely Ratner said the threat of direct conflict between the US and China was “neither imminent nor inevitable” but that the Pentagon must act quickly to reduce the risk of war.
His projected timeline aligns with what his predecessor, Admiral Philip Davidson, and other US military leaders have said – that China is seeking to achieve invasion capabilities in Taiwan by 2027 without necessarily wanting war.
Aquilino wrote in his testimony that of the three main US concerns in the region – Russia, China and North Korea – China is “the only country that has the ability, capacity and intention to turn the international order upside down”.
“On a scale not seen since World War 2, there is an accumulation of WMD on land, at sea, in the air, in space, in cyberspace and in the information domains,” he added.
China’s military has added more than 400 fighter jets and 20 warships to its arsenal in the past three years and doubled its missile arsenal, Aquilino said.
At the same time, Beijing has increased the number of satellites it launches by 50% and more than doubled its arsenal of nuclear warheads, he added.
Aquilino urged the US to step up its military development, saying threats in the Indo-Pacific continue to “grow and accelerate”.
“We have to move faster,” Aquilino told lawmakers repeatedly during Wednesday’s two-hour hearing.
He recommended deploying systems on Guam that can defend against hypersonic and cruise missiles by 2027, two years ahead of the December 2029 deadline set by Congress.
This year, the Indo-Pacific Command’s priority wish list said it was hoping for $11 billion more than the White House allocated, with $430 million requested for Guam’s missile defense system, according to documents obtained by Politico Pro.
China has not officially signaled an impending war with Taiwan. But Xi Jinping said he believed unification was inevitable. He also refused to rule out the assimilation of the self-governing island by force.
Analysts debate his ability to successfully mount an amphibious invasion of the island, and the likelihood and timeliness of American intervention are key to that calculus.
If Taiwan were to be invaded, Beijing would have the Herculean task of moving massed ground forces safely across the strait. China appears to be exploring transportation options, such as requisitioning civilian ships to help with transportation.
On the other hand, analysts say Taiwan’s best bet for defense is probably to hold out until the US arrives.
US leaders, meanwhile, are concerned about Xi’s mandate to make China’s military a “world-class” force by 2027, as the White House fears Beijing is seeking to replace the US as the dominant power in the Indo-Pacific and eventually the rest of the world.
More recently, Beijing’s forces have been embroiled in a corruption scandal, with Xi ousting several high-ranking leaders — including some from the missile force.
The purges and reports of corruption materially affecting China’s arsenal have raised questions on the international stage about the true strength of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army and whether Xi Jinping’s military goals have been delayed.
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