Russia will not attack the Baltics, Poland or the Czech Republic, Putin said during a meeting with Russian pilots. According to him, such a possibility is nonsense, but at the same time he pointed out that if the West supplies the Ukrainians with F-16 aircraft, the Russian army will shoot them down. “It doesn’t matter if we trust the Russian president or not. The numbers speak clearly – Russia’s ability to attack someone is currently significantly limited,” security expert and military analyst Lukáš Dyčka explained on Radiožurnal.
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Prague
8:05 p.m March 28, 2024
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“It is true that at the moment it is not rational and not even very conceivable that Russia would attack any other states,” says the analyst | Photo: Maxim Shemetov | Source: Reuters
How credible are similar statements from Vladimir Putin? How does the Russian president fulfill the agreements and contracts that Russia has concluded?
I would probably not judge this particular statement completely from the point of view of credibility, but rather from the point of view of rationality.
Midday journalism with Věra Štechrová
It is true that at present it is not rational and in fact not very conceivable that Russia would attack any other states. I believe it is fully bound and exhausted in Ukraine.
From this point of view, it doesn’t matter whether we trust the Russian president or not. The numbers speak clearly – Russia’s ability to attack anyone is currently severely limited.
Putin’s words that reach the public are never random. So why do you think Vladimir Putin needed to emphasize that he is not interested in other Eastern European countries?
These are not random words. But it is always important to whom the speech is actually intended. In this situation, it is not easy to decide whether it is more for the domestic audience, specifically for the army only, or whether it is intended for a foreign audience as well.
Anyway, if we were to focus more on why he interprets similar things to his own army or air force, then maybe to calm the situation. He emphasizes to his pilots and his staff that they needn’t be afraid. In short, he does not want to burden them unnecessarily with the threat of another armed conflict.
But if the signal is directed abroad, it will of course resonate to some extent in pro-Russian fifth columns in some countries. They will point and say: “you see, Russia is actually a peaceful state.” This too can be a secondary effect of this statement.
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Could the timing of Putin’s statement have something to do with the fact that just yesterday (Wednesday) the BIS published a successful expose of one of Russia’s major influence operations on EU territory? Russia organized a network that tried to influence the European Parliament elections in various European countries.
I cannot judge whether the statement is directly related to the revelation of Russian influence operations. The inclusion of the Czech Republic in Vladimir Putin’s speech may be related to this event, but I rather assume that the speech was written some time in advance and may not be so related to what BIS does or does not do.
Putin also mentioned F-16s. This year, Ukraine is to receive over four dozen machines from Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium or Norway. How can these planes disrupt Russian war plans and tactics?
Again, it is necessary to look at who Vladimir Putin was talking to. If he was speaking to Air Force personnel, it’s clear that he brought up topics that are important to the target audience, and the F-16s certainly are. I would not overestimate their contribution to the conflict in Ukraine.
Of course, it will be a qualitative change, but I definitely wouldn’t want the delivery to look like some miracle weapon that will win the war in Ukraine. It’s just a piece of the mosaic. In short, the Russian president needed to assure his pilots that they are capable of responding to the threat of F-16 aircraft.
Does Russia have the means to systematically destroy the planes?
If I understood the president’s statement correctly, in his speech he focused not so much on shooting down in a classic aerial battle, but rather on the liquidation itself.
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He expressed himself in the sense that they will liquidate the delivered aircraft, whether they are on the territory of Ukraine or somewhere else. I don’t know how capable the Russians are of destroying F-16s before they reach Ukraine.
In any case, we have no idea how much sabotage capabilities the Russians have in this area. But I wouldn’t overestimate them.
F-16 aircraft are primarily intended to protect the airspace of Ukraine. Can the Russians possibly destroy airplanes in the territory of Ukraine?
Of course yes. Russian air defenses are active in this area and are currently causing significant problems for the Ukrainian Air Force. The Russians are generally known for having a layered and fairly capable anti-aircraft defense.
So I would take it like any other technical tool that the Ukrainians will get and have received. It will be vulnerable to Russian destruction or destruction. However, the quality of the F-16 aircraft will still be higher than what the Ukrainians currently have at their disposal.
Věra Štechrová, tlc
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