Man Who Predicted Russian Invasion of Neighboring Country: ‘I’m Going to Sequel’

In 2008, Michael Žantovský’s book Chilling appeared as science fiction. But the story about the Russian invasion and the threat of stopping the gas taps has been a reality for over two years. In an interview, the former diplomat and politician says what he will decide in the war in Ukraine.

“When I wrote Ochlazení, the world was relatively idyllic,” Michael Žantovský recalls sixteen years ago, when he was ambassador to Israel.

The book, subtitled “a near-future espionage thriller,” was originally published under the pseudonym Daniel Wolf. This is precisely with regard to the fact that as a diplomat playing with the motive of Russian war aggression, he does not cause a scandal.

In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea and began occupying the east of Ukraine, then in 2022, Russian tanks drove all the way to Kiev and Russian dictator Vladimir Putin had Ukrainian territory bombed – a regular war broke out.

“I have no prophetic abilities, or at least I have never discovered them in myself. But I consider myself a fairly good analyst because I’ve been involved in foreign policy for the last 35 years, and it seemed to me that it was a matter of analysis to say that Russia was becoming more dangerous than it was. And that if he decides to fulfill that threat, he will use energy weapons to do so,” says Michael Žantovský in an interview that is part of the List of Personalities Gallery project.

In the book, Russian tanks invaded Belarus, where in the novel there were demonstrations of people demanding freedom and democracy. The response to Russian aggression was the protest of the countries of the European Union and NATO, but they were largely dependent on Russian gas supplies. And so the Russian dictator had their taps turned off…

Why was the world unable to prepare for this situation, which the analyst could realistically describe in advance?

“I often think about it,” answers Žantovský. “And I think about it more like a psychologist (original profession M. Ž., editor’s note) than as a diplomat. It is human nature not to imagine the worst. And if we imagine it, don’t believe that it will actually happen. Because if we were really aware of all the dangers that threaten us in our daily lives, we basically wouldn’t be able to live a normal life.”

According to him, at a time when Russia has been waging war for the third year, it is important to persist in supporting Ukraine and not let up.

“We can well predict the behavior of Putin’s regime today. We know that this is the man who set about trying to overturn the entire international order, to overturn the balance of power in the world, to restore Russia’s great power position within those imperial borders. I do not hide my conviction that not only Ukraine, but also our part of the world is indirectly attacked by his actions,” says Žantovský.

“If we remain united, if we help Ukraine, if we use our economic advantages and above all the greatest advantage that he does not even dream of, that is, the potential that opens up human freedom, freedom to make free decisions, freedom to invent, discover, then he has no chance.”

Can it be arranged at a time when the social consensus on the need to help Ukraine is starting to fade after more than two years?

“Every war is tiring, exhausting. The human psyche gets used to some things and stops taking them as an immediate challenge. So yes, war fatigue, as it’s called, is definitely happening in our country, in Europe, in the US, and to some extent certainly in Ukraine. But since it’s a phenomenon that affects both sides, it’s just a matter of whether we can last longer than he can. I say that we have the prerequisites for that.”

At the same time, Michael Žantovský returns to the theme of his sixteen-year-old book Cooling.

“A sequel is born,” he says. The first book ended with the central character, an employee of the Czech intelligence service referred to as Josef K., falling into the water. “However, I can please potential readers with the fact that Josef K. survived the fall and still exists,” says Žantovský. In what story Josef K. will finally emerge, he leaves shrouded in mystery for now. He’s toying with the idea that, unlike a spy thriller, this time around it’ll be a more cheerful read.

“If the story sounded dark in contrast to the situation when I wrote the first book, I can’t imagine how much darker the story would have to be to fit the situation today. And sometimes these considerations work in a paradoxical direction. So maybe it will be a comedy, what will come out of it in the end,” Žantovský suggests jokingly.

In the interview, Michael Žantovský also talks about how he was relieved to leave the “civilian” after seventeen years in the diplomatic service (he was ambassador to the USA, Israel and Great Britain) and overall after more than thirty years of public activity (he was also the spokesman for President Václav Havel, once a senator and chairman of the government ODA, and until last year director of the Václav Havel Library).

“I belong to the kind of people who prefer to be themselves. The full-time job, whatever it is, limits a person to a certain extent, so now after a long time I feel free,” says Žantovský, adding: “There are some secrets, commitments, rules that are not broken, even some are not broken even after death.”

But he can use them as plots in his books: “If you dress them up enough in other clothes, why not,” he laughs.

Michael Žantovský is considered a very successful writer not only thanks to Ochlazení. Ten years ago, he published a multihundred-page biography of the first Czech president, Václav Havel, which has so far been published in twenty countries around the world. Last year, he launched a book of “behind the scenes stories” titled With Forgiveness and subtitled My Life Among the Famous and Powerful.

What are his next plans? How does he remember the years he spent as a psychologist at the Psychiatric Research Institute in Prague-Bohnice? How did he force himself to write unflattering memories while writing about Václav Havel? And why should politicians in high positions be “suspicious of themselves”?

You can listen to the interview with Michael Žantovský in the audio version at the beginning of the article – we will publish the transcript and video of the entire interview on Saturday.